US Politics · SENBGR

RED Battleground Senate Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in U.S. Senate races across battleground states.

75.21

+0.3 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.3 pts

7D change

+0.2 pts

Markets

9

Implied probability

25.2%

RED Battleground Senate Index is at 75.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 25.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

76.175.374.673.8Aug 11Aug 25Sep 10

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Sep 10, 2026, 1:29 AM UTCRange 74.01–75.86

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • SENATEMI-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?

    Down
    Level
    38.00
    Weight
    23.0%
    30D
    -8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • SENATEGA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?

    Down
    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    17.6%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • SENATENC-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

    Up
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    16.8%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • SENATEPA-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Pennsylvania?

    Up
    Level
    26.00
    Weight
    9.5%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    PA · kalshi

  • SENATENC-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

    Up
    Level
    42.00
    Weight
    8.3%
    30D
    +10.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NC · kalshi

  • SENATEGA-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?

    Up
    Level
    30.67
    Weight
    8.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    GA · kalshi

  • SENATEAZ-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arizona?

    Up
    Level
    25.00
    Weight
    6.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    AZ · kalshi

  • SENATEWI-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wisconsin?

    Up
    Level
    37.00
    Weight
    5.9%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WI · kalshi

  • SENATENV-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nevada?

    Up
    Level
    42.00
    Weight
    4.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NV · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

9 markets

0–10%
2 · 22.2%
10–20%
0 · 0.0%
20–30%
2 · 22.2%
30–40%
4 · 44.4%
40–50%
1 · 11.1%
50–60%
0 · 0.0%
60–70%
0 · 0.0%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
0 · 0.0%
90–100%
0 · 0.0%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Sep 8, 202674.91
Sep 7, 202674.92
Sep 6, 202674.91
Sep 5, 202674.99
Sep 4, 202675.27
Sep 3, 202675.01
Sep 2, 202675.04
Sep 1, 202674.83
Aug 31, 202675.08
Aug 30, 202674.92
Show 38 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Aug 29, 202675.03
Aug 28, 202675.70
Aug 27, 202675.48
Aug 26, 202674.37
Aug 25, 202674.27
Aug 24, 202674.98
Aug 23, 202674.35
Aug 22, 202674.09
Aug 21, 202674.01
Aug 20, 202674.11
Aug 19, 202674.02
Aug 18, 202675.86
Aug 17, 202674.57
Aug 16, 202675.19
Aug 15, 202675.44
Aug 14, 202675.65
Aug 13, 202675.20
Aug 12, 202674.81
Aug 11, 202675.18
Aug 10, 202675.31
Aug 9, 202675.24
Aug 8, 202674.90
Aug 7, 202674.19
Aug 6, 202674.30
Aug 5, 202673.78
Aug 4, 202672.95
Aug 3, 202672.46
Aug 2, 202671.48
Aug 1, 202670.99
Jul 31, 202671.01
Jul 30, 202671.16
Jul 29, 202671.37
Jul 28, 202671.45
Jul 27, 202671.32
Jul 26, 202671.28
Jul 25, 202671.09
Jul 24, 202671.01
Jul 23, 202671.15