US Politics · SENBGR

RED Battleground Senate Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in U.S. Senate races across battleground states.

71.10

+0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.0 pts

7D change

—

Markets

Implied probability

21.1%

RED Battleground Senate Index is at 71.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 21.1% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 71.10–71.48

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

Ticker	Market	Level	Weight	30D
SENATEGA-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia? Expires Nov 3, 2027	10.00	24.7%	—
SENATEMI-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan? Expires Nov 3, 2027	30.00	15.9%	—
SENATENC-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina? Expires Nov 3, 2027	10.00	15.7%	—
SENATEPA-28-R kalshi · PA	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Expires Nov 7, 2029	23.00	9.8%	—
SENATENC-28-R kalshi · NC	Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina? Expires Nov 7, 2029	32.00	8.6%	—
SENATEGA-28-R kalshi · GA	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia? Expires Nov 7, 2029	29.00	8.5%	—
SENATEAZ-28-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arizona? Expires Nov 7, 2029	23.00	6.5%	—
SENATEWI-28-R kalshi · WI	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Expires Nov 7, 2029	39.00	6.0%	—
SENATENV-28-R kalshi · NV	Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nevada? Expires Nov 7, 2029	42.00	4.3%	—

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

9 markets

0–10%

0 · 0.0%

10–20%

2 · 22.2%

20–30%

4 · 44.4%

30–40%

3 · 33.3%

40–50%

0 · 0.0%

50–60%

0 · 0.0%

60–70%

0 · 0.0%

70–80%

0 · 0.0%

80–90%

0 · 0.0%

90–100%

0 · 0.0%

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.