US Politics · HOUSED

House (D)

Tracking Democrat House races

127.06

+0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.1 pts

7D change

-0.3 pts

Markets

58

Implied probability

77.1%

House (D) is at 127.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 77.1% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

127.7127.2126.8126.3Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 126.46127.54

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • HOUSECA22-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-22?

    Up
    Level
    81.00
    Weight
    3.4%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSETX15-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?

    Down
    Level
    45.67
    Weight
    3.2%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSETX28-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for TX-28?

    Up
    Level
    83.75
    Weight
    3.0%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSECA3-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-3?

    Down
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.9%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-13?

    Up
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA49-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?

    Flat
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSETX34-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34?

    Flat
    Level
    76.00
    Weight
    2.4%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSECA41-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-41?

    Flat
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA27-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-27?

    Flat
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA45-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-45?

    Down
    Level
    80.67
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    -10.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA21-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-21?

    Up
    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +8.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA9-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-9?

    Down
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA47-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?

    Down
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSEFL23-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +8.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-7?

    Up
    Level
    79.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?

    Up
    Level
    74.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENC1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?

    Up
    Level
    50.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSENY18-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-18?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?

    Down
    Level
    60.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEWA3-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WA-3?

    Down
    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA17-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?

    Flat
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENY4-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4?

    Up
    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEFL13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for FL-13?

    Down
    Level
    24.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?

    Up
    Level
    82.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?

    Down
    Level
    42.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    -6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEME2-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for ME-2?

    Up
    Level
    38.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • HOUSENY19-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NY-19?

    Up
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?

    Down
    Level
    52.67
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    -17.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?

    Down
    Level
    65.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ9-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-9?

    Up
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • HOUSEIN1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for IN-1?

    Up
    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IN · kalshi

  • HOUSENY22-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-22?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?

    Flat
    Level
    73.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ6-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?

    Down
    Level
    83.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEMT1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1?

    Down
    Level
    36.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -9.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MT · kalshi

  • HOUSEVA7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for VA-07?

    Down
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VA · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?

    Down
    Level
    37.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI4-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?

    Down
    Level
    37.67
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEOH1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for OH-1?

    Down
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI3-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?

    Up
    Level
    90.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEVA10-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for VA-10?

    Flat
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VA · kalshi

  • HOUSECO8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for CO-8?

    Up
    Level
    77.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ2-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?

    Down
    Level
    30.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -6.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSENV3-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?

    Flat
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?

    Down
    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEWA8-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for WA-08?

    Flat
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?

    Up
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ5-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NJ-5?

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • HOUSEIA1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for IA-1?

    Up
    Level
    77.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMN2-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for MN-2?

    Down
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT01-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for UT-01?

    Flat
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

  • HOUSENE2-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NE-2?

    Up
    Level
    86.33
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • HOUSENV4-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?

    Up
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSECT5-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for CT-5?

    Up
    Level
    78.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • HOUSEOR5-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for OR-5?

    Up
    Level
    85.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • HOUSENH1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NH-1?

    Up
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NH · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for UT-03?

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    -5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for UT-02?

    Up
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

58 markets

0–10%
1 · 1.7%
10–20%
1 · 1.7%
20–30%
1 · 1.7%
30–40%
5 · 8.6%
40–50%
2 · 3.4%
50–60%
1 · 1.7%
60–70%
3 · 5.2%
70–80%
7 · 12.1%
80–90%
14 · 24.1%
90–100%
23 · 39.7%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 2026127.03
Jul 24, 2026127.08
Jul 23, 2026127.09
Jul 22, 2026127.14
Jul 21, 2026127.37
Jul 20, 2026127.54
Jul 19, 2026127.29
Jul 18, 2026127.17
Jul 17, 2026127.13
Jul 16, 2026127.09
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 2026126.89
Jul 14, 2026126.86
Jul 13, 2026126.94
Jul 12, 2026127.07
Jul 11, 2026127.09
Jul 10, 2026127.08
Jul 9, 2026127.02
Jul 8, 2026126.95
Jul 7, 2026126.76
Jul 6, 2026126.60
Jul 5, 2026126.53
Jul 4, 2026126.58
Jul 3, 2026126.54
Jul 2, 2026126.72
Jul 1, 2026126.58
Jun 30, 2026126.52
Jun 29, 2026126.58
Jun 28, 2026126.59
Jun 27, 2026126.46
Jun 26, 2026126.23
Jun 25, 2026125.97
Jun 24, 2026125.36
Jun 23, 2026125.34
Jun 22, 2026125.52
Jun 21, 2026124.75
Jun 20, 2026124.56
Jun 19, 2026122.91
Jun 18, 2026122.99
Jun 17, 2026123.05
Jun 16, 2026121.39
Jun 15, 2026120.47
Jun 14, 2026120.24
Jun 13, 2026120.57
Jun 12, 2026120.49
Jun 11, 2026119.27
Jun 10, 2026119.14
Jun 9, 2026119.90
Jun 8, 2026120.18
Jun 7, 2026120.51
Jun 6, 2026119.92
Jun 5, 2026118.66
Jun 4, 2026118.60
Jun 3, 2026119.06
Jun 2, 2026118.69
Jun 1, 2026118.04
May 31, 2026118.57
May 30, 2026117.60
May 29, 2026118.14
May 28, 2026118.37
May 27, 2026117.82
May 26, 2026119.66
May 25, 2026119.22
May 24, 2026118.62
May 23, 2026118.39
May 22, 2026119.17
May 21, 2026124.45
May 20, 2026124.52
May 19, 2026124.30
May 18, 2026124.13
May 17, 2026124.08
May 16, 2026124.04
May 15, 2026123.95
May 14, 2026124.04
May 13, 2026124.05
May 12, 2026124.05
May 11, 2026124.06
May 10, 2026124.18
May 9, 2026124.24
May 8, 2026124.05
May 7, 2026123.13
May 6, 2026123.05
May 5, 2026123.04
May 4, 2026123.60
May 3, 2026123.72
May 2, 2026123.73
May 1, 2026123.69
Apr 30, 2026123.77
Apr 29, 2026123.85
Apr 28, 2026123.88
Apr 27, 2026123.59
Apr 26, 2026123.44
Apr 25, 2026123.43
Apr 24, 2026123.40
Apr 23, 2026123.40
Apr 22, 2026123.40
Apr 21, 2026123.30
Apr 20, 2026123.31
Apr 19, 2026123.20
Apr 18, 2026123.16
Apr 17, 2026123.16