US Politics · HOUSED
House (D)
Tracking Democrat House races
127.06
+0.1 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.1 pts
7D change
-0.3 pts
Markets
58
Implied probability
77.1%
House (D) is at 127.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 77.1% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
- Up
HOUSECA22-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-22?
- Level
- 81.00
- Weight
- 3.4%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSETX15-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?
- Level
- 45.67
- Weight
- 3.2%
- 30D
- -3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Up
HOUSETX28-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-28?
- Level
- 83.75
- Weight
- 3.0%
- 30D
- +3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA3-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-3?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 2.9%
- 30D
- -2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECA13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-13?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 2.8%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA49-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.7%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSETX34-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34?
- Level
- 76.00
- Weight
- 2.4%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA41-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-41?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA27-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-27?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA45-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-45?
- Level
- 80.67
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- -10.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECA21-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-21?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- +8.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA9-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-9?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- -3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA47-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- -2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEFL23-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +8.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
FL · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENJ7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-7?
- Level
- 79.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEPA7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?
- Level
- 74.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENC1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?
- Level
- 50.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- +4.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENY18-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-18?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMI10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?
- Level
- 60.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- -2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEWA3-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WA-3?
- Level
- 84.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSEPA17-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENY4-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- +8.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEFL13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-13?
- Level
- 24.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- -5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
FL · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEPA10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?
- Level
- 82.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEPA1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?
- Level
- 42.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- -6.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEME2-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for ME-2?
- Level
- 38.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
ME · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENY19-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-19?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +7.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMI7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?
- Level
- 52.67
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- -17.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEPA8-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?
- Level
- 65.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENJ9-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-9?
- Level
- 90.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEIN1-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for IN-1?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IN · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENY22-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-22?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +4.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSEAZ1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?
- Level
- 73.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEAZ6-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?
- Level
- 83.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- -3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMT1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1?
- Level
- 36.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- -9.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MT · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEVA7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-07?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
VA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEWI1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?
- Level
- 37.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMI4-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?
- Level
- 37.67
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- -2.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEOH1-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for OH-1?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OH · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMI3-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?
- Level
- 90.50
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEVA10-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for VA-10?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
VA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECO8-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for CO-8?
- Level
- 77.50
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +7.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CO · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEAZ2-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?
- Level
- 30.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- -6.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSENV3-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENV1-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEWA8-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for WA-08?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMI8-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENJ5-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NJ-5?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEIA1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for IA-1?
- Level
- 77.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +6.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMN2-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for MN-2?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- -1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MN · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEUT01-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for UT-01?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENE2-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NE-2?
- Level
- 86.33
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NE · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENV4-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECT5-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for CT-5?
- Level
- 78.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CT · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEOR5-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for OR-5?
- Level
- 85.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OR · kalshi
- Up
HOUSENH1-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NH-1?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NH · kalshi
- Down
KXHOUSEUT03-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for UT-03?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- -5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
- Up
KXHOUSEUT02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for UT-02?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
58 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 127.03 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 127.08 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 127.09 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 127.14 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 127.37 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 127.54 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | 127.29 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 127.17 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 127.13 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 127.09 |
Show 90 older daily observations
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | 126.89 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 126.86 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 126.94 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | 127.07 |
| Jul 11, 2026 | 127.09 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 127.08 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 127.02 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 126.95 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 126.76 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 126.60 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | 126.53 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | 126.58 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 126.54 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 126.72 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 126.58 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 126.52 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 126.58 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 126.59 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 126.46 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 126.23 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 125.97 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 125.36 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 125.34 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 125.52 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 124.75 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | 124.56 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 122.91 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 122.99 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 123.05 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 121.39 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 120.47 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 120.24 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | 120.57 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 120.49 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 119.27 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 119.14 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 119.90 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 120.18 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | 120.51 |
| Jun 6, 2026 | 119.92 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 118.66 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 118.60 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 119.06 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 118.69 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 118.04 |
| May 31, 2026 | 118.57 |
| May 30, 2026 | 117.60 |
| May 29, 2026 | 118.14 |
| May 28, 2026 | 118.37 |
| May 27, 2026 | 117.82 |
| May 26, 2026 | 119.66 |
| May 25, 2026 | 119.22 |
| May 24, 2026 | 118.62 |
| May 23, 2026 | 118.39 |
| May 22, 2026 | 119.17 |
| May 21, 2026 | 124.45 |
| May 20, 2026 | 124.52 |
| May 19, 2026 | 124.30 |
| May 18, 2026 | 124.13 |
| May 17, 2026 | 124.08 |
| May 16, 2026 | 124.04 |
| May 15, 2026 | 123.95 |
| May 14, 2026 | 124.04 |
| May 13, 2026 | 124.05 |
| May 12, 2026 | 124.05 |
| May 11, 2026 | 124.06 |
| May 10, 2026 | 124.18 |
| May 9, 2026 | 124.24 |
| May 8, 2026 | 124.05 |
| May 7, 2026 | 123.13 |
| May 6, 2026 | 123.05 |
| May 5, 2026 | 123.04 |
| May 4, 2026 | 123.60 |
| May 3, 2026 | 123.72 |
| May 2, 2026 | 123.73 |
| May 1, 2026 | 123.69 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 123.77 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 123.85 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 123.88 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 123.59 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | 123.44 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | 123.43 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 123.40 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 123.40 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 123.40 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 123.30 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 123.31 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 123.20 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | 123.16 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 123.16 |