US Politics · GOVBGR
RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in gubernatorial races across battleground states.
78.68
+0.1 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.1 pts
7D change
—
Markets
7
Implied probability
28.7%
RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index is at 78.7 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 28.7% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
GOVPARTYGA-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
- Level
- 42.00
- Weight
- 21.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
GOVPARTYAZ-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
- Level
- 20.00
- Weight
- 17.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
GOVPARTYPA-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 15.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
GOVPARTYMI-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
- Level
- 14.50
- Weight
- 15.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
GOVPARTYNV-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
- Level
- 43.00
- Weight
- 12.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
GOVPARTYWI-26-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
- Level
- 46.00
- Weight
- 11.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
GOVPARTYNC-28-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in North Carolina
- Level
- 33.00
- Weight
- 7.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
NC · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
7 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 78.40 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 78.31 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 78.78 |