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    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
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  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · GOVBGR

RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in gubernatorial races across battleground states.

71.16

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

—

7D change

—

Markets

7

Implied probability

21.2%

RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index is at 71.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 21.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

76.274.272.370.2Sep 26Oct 10Oct 25

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 7:39 PM UTCRange 70.82–75.61

Constituents

No constituent data is currently available.

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 24, 202671.12
Oct 23, 202671.28
Oct 22, 202670.82
Oct 21, 202671.50
Oct 20, 202673.33
Oct 19, 202674.11
Oct 18, 202674.30
Oct 17, 202674.28
Oct 16, 202674.08
Oct 15, 202674.33
Show 21 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 14, 202674.77
Oct 13, 202674.85
Oct 12, 202675.26
Oct 11, 202675.29
Oct 10, 202675.61
Oct 9, 202675.38
Oct 8, 202675.02
Oct 7, 202675.15
Oct 6, 202674.88
Oct 5, 202674.76
Oct 4, 202675.07
Oct 3, 202675.33
Oct 2, 202675.29
Oct 1, 202674.90
Sep 30, 202675.01
Sep 29, 202674.58
Sep 28, 202674.41
Sep 27, 202673.91
Sep 26, 202673.75
Sep 25, 202673.90
Sep 24, 202673.68

About this index

How RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
Governor
Methodology
battleground
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Market basket

7 tracked markets

Calculated with Adjacent UPFI methodology

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
—
1W
—
1M
—
3M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—