US Politics · PRESD

Presidential (D)

Tracking the Democrat Presidency

107.50

+0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.0 pts

7D change

-0.5 pts

Markets

1

Implied probability

57.5%

Presidential (D) is at 107.5 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 57.5% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

108.6108.2107.8107.4Aug 11Aug 25Sep 9

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Sep 9, 2026, 4:36 PM UTCRange 107.50–108.50

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • KXPRESPARTY-2028-D

    Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

    Flat
    Level
    58.00
    Weight
    100.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

1 market

0–10%
0 · 0.0%
10–20%
0 · 0.0%
20–30%
0 · 0.0%
30–40%
0 · 0.0%
40–50%
0 · 0.0%
50–60%
1 · 100.0%
60–70%
0 · 0.0%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
0 · 0.0%
90–100%
0 · 0.0%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Sep 8, 2026107.50
Sep 7, 2026107.50
Sep 6, 2026108.00
Sep 5, 2026108.00
Sep 4, 2026107.50
Sep 3, 2026108.00
Sep 2, 2026108.00
Sep 1, 2026108.50
Aug 31, 2026108.50
Aug 30, 2026107.50
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Aug 29, 2026108.00
Aug 28, 2026108.00
Aug 27, 2026108.00
Aug 26, 2026108.00
Aug 25, 2026108.50
Aug 24, 2026108.00
Aug 23, 2026107.50
Aug 22, 2026107.50
Aug 21, 2026107.50
Aug 20, 2026107.50
Aug 19, 2026107.50
Aug 18, 2026107.50
Aug 17, 2026107.50
Aug 16, 2026107.50
Aug 15, 2026107.50
Aug 14, 2026107.50
Aug 13, 2026107.50
Aug 12, 2026107.50
Aug 11, 2026107.50
Aug 10, 2026107.50
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Aug 6, 2026107.50
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Aug 4, 2026107.50
Aug 3, 2026107.50
Aug 2, 2026107.50
Aug 1, 2026107.50
Jul 31, 2026107.50
Jul 30, 2026107.50
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Jul 28, 2026107.50
Jul 27, 2026107.50
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Jun 14, 2026108.50
Jun 13, 2026108.50
Jun 12, 2026108.50
Jun 11, 2026108.50
Jun 10, 2026109.00
Jun 9, 2026109.00
Jun 8, 2026109.50
Jun 7, 2026109.50
Jun 6, 2026109.50
Jun 5, 2026110.00
Jun 4, 2026110.00
Jun 3, 2026110.00
Jun 2, 2026109.50
Jun 1, 2026110.50