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  • All (18)
  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
    • Presidential (R)
    • Presidential (D)
    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
    • House (D)
    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
  • Sports (28)
  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · PRESD

Presidential (D)

Tracking the Democrat Presidency

108.50

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

—

7D change

—

Markets

1

Implied probability

58.5%

Presidential (D) is at 108.5 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 58.5% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

109.6109.2108.8108.4Sep 25Oct 9Oct 24

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 4:19 PM UTCRange 108.50–109.50

Constituents

No constituent data is currently available.

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 23, 2026108.50
Oct 22, 2026108.50
Oct 21, 2026108.50
Oct 20, 2026108.50
Oct 19, 2026108.50
Oct 18, 2026108.50
Oct 17, 2026108.50
Oct 16, 2026108.50
Oct 15, 2026108.50
Oct 14, 2026108.50
Show 21 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 13, 2026108.50
Oct 12, 2026108.50
Oct 11, 2026108.50
Oct 10, 2026108.50
Oct 9, 2026108.50
Oct 8, 2026108.50
Oct 7, 2026108.50
Oct 6, 2026108.50
Oct 5, 2026108.50
Oct 4, 2026108.50
Oct 3, 2026109.50
Oct 2, 2026108.50
Oct 1, 2026108.50
Sep 30, 2026108.50
Sep 29, 2026108.50
Sep 28, 2026108.50
Sep 27, 2026108.50
Sep 26, 2026108.50
Sep 25, 2026108.50
Sep 24, 2026108.50
Sep 23, 2026108.50

About this index

How Presidential (D) is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
Presidential
Methodology
upfi
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Market basket

1 tracked markets

Calculated with Adjacent UPFI methodology

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
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1W
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1M
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3M
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YTD
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1Y
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