US Politics · HOUSER

House (R)

Tracking Republican House races

74.10

-0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.0 pts

7D change

-0.5 pts

Markets

58

Implied probability

24.1%

House (R) is at 74.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 24.1% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

75.775.074.473.8Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 73.9675.48

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • HOUSECA22-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-22?

    Up
    Level
    20.00
    Weight
    3.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA45-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-45?

    Up
    Level
    19.00
    Weight
    3.0%
    30D
    +9.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSETX28-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for TX-28?

    Down
    Level
    19.00
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSETX15-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for TX-15?

    Up
    Level
    55.50
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSECA21-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for CA-21?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -6.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSETX34-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for TX-34?

    Down
    Level
    29.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • HOUSECA13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-13?

    Down
    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA3-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-3?

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA41-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-41?

    Flat
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA27-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-27?

    Flat
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSEIN1-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for IN-1?

    Down
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IN · kalshi

  • HOUSECA9-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-9?

    Up
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA49-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?

    Flat
    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSECA47-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CA-47?

    Up
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • HOUSEFL23-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for FL-23?

    Down
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • HOUSENY18-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NY-18?

    Down
    Level
    6.33
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSENE2-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NE-2?

    Down
    Level
    19.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?

    Flat
    Level
    29.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENY4-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NY-4?

    Down
    Level
    14.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -7.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NJ-7?

    Down
    Level
    23.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -5.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • HOUSEFL13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for FL-13?

    Up
    Level
    81.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • HOUSEWA3-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WA-3?

    Up
    Level
    22.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?

    Down
    Level
    18.67
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ6-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?

    Up
    Level
    21.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEME2-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for ME-2?

    Up
    Level
    68.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • HOUSENC1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?

    Down
    Level
    51.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA8-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?

    Up
    Level
    43.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?

    Up
    Level
    62.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +6.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENY22-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NY-22?

    Down
    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    -4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-10?

    Up
    Level
    40.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSENY19-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NY-19?

    Down
    Level
    15.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    -6.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • HOUSEOH1-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for OH-1?

    Flat
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ2-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?

    Up
    Level
    69.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA17-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?

    Flat
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENV1-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?

    Flat
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?

    Up
    Level
    34.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +16.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?

    Up
    Level
    70.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?

    Up
    Level
    32.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEVA7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for VA-7?

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMT1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MT-1?

    Up
    Level
    64.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MT · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT03-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for UT-03?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +5.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

  • HOUSECO8-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for CO-8?

    Down
    Level
    28.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    -7.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI4-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?

    Up
    Level
    69.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for UT-02?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI3-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEUT01-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for UT-01?

    Flat
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    UT · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI8-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ5-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NJ-5?

    Flat
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • HOUSENJ9-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NJ-9?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEVA10-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for VA-10?

    Flat
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSEWA8-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for WA-08?

    Flat
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMN2-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for MN-2?

    Up
    Level
    11.67
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • HOUSEIA1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for IA-1?

    Down
    Level
    28.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    -3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • HOUSECT5-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for CT-5?

    Flat
    Level
    16.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • HOUSENH1-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NH-1?

    Flat
    Level
    16.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NH · kalshi

  • HOUSENV3-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?

    Down
    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV4-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?

    Flat
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSEOR5-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for OR-5?

    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

58 markets

0–10%
17 · 29.3%
10–20%
19 · 32.8%
20–30%
7 · 12.1%
30–40%
3 · 5.2%
40–50%
2 · 3.4%
50–60%
1 · 1.7%
60–70%
6 · 10.3%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
1 · 1.7%
90–100%
2 · 3.4%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 202674.12
Jul 24, 202674.12
Jul 23, 202674.05
Jul 22, 202673.96
Jul 21, 202674.01
Jul 20, 202674.24
Jul 19, 202674.58
Jul 18, 202674.56
Jul 17, 202674.73
Jul 16, 202674.47
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 202674.58
Jul 14, 202674.69
Jul 13, 202674.56
Jul 12, 202674.57
Jul 11, 202674.51
Jul 10, 202674.55
Jul 9, 202674.75
Jul 8, 202674.68
Jul 7, 202674.83
Jul 6, 202674.84
Jul 5, 202674.91
Jul 4, 202674.85
Jul 3, 202674.91
Jul 2, 202675.02
Jul 1, 202675.17
Jun 30, 202675.35
Jun 29, 202675.27
Jun 28, 202675.34
Jun 27, 202675.48
Jun 26, 202675.68
Jun 25, 202675.55
Jun 24, 202675.49
Jun 23, 202675.47
Jun 22, 202675.41
Jun 21, 202676.02
Jun 20, 202676.24
Jun 19, 202676.46
Jun 18, 202676.72
Jun 17, 202676.89
Jun 16, 202678.31
Jun 15, 202679.27
Jun 14, 202679.09
Jun 13, 202678.41
Jun 12, 202678.45
Jun 11, 202678.71
Jun 10, 202678.95
Jun 9, 202679.16
Jun 8, 202679.34
Jun 7, 202679.43
Jun 6, 202679.43
Jun 5, 202679.40
Jun 4, 202679.57
Jun 3, 202679.81
Jun 2, 202679.83
Jun 1, 202679.22
May 31, 202679.11
May 30, 202679.10
May 29, 202678.83
May 28, 202679.14
May 27, 202679.54
May 26, 202679.78
May 25, 202679.52
May 24, 202680.82
May 23, 202680.60
May 22, 202680.88
May 21, 202676.19
May 20, 202676.14
May 19, 202676.19
May 18, 202676.44
May 17, 202676.49
May 16, 202676.50
May 15, 202676.76
May 14, 202676.69
May 13, 202676.71
May 12, 202676.67
May 11, 202676.64
May 10, 202676.62
May 9, 202676.58
May 8, 202676.79
May 7, 202677.69
May 6, 202677.74
May 5, 202677.42
May 4, 202677.10
May 3, 202676.95
May 2, 202676.92
May 1, 202677.00
Apr 30, 202676.70
Apr 29, 202676.81
Apr 28, 202676.84
Apr 27, 202677.20
Apr 26, 202677.31
Apr 25, 202677.22
Apr 24, 202677.19
Apr 23, 202677.20
Apr 22, 202677.22
Apr 21, 202677.32
Apr 20, 202677.32
Apr 19, 202677.38
Apr 18, 202677.41
Apr 17, 202677.40