US Politics · HOUSER
House (R)
Tracking Republican House races
74.10
-0.0 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
-0.0 pts
7D change
-0.5 pts
Markets
58
Implied probability
24.1%
House (R) is at 74.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 24.1% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
- Up
HOUSECA22-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-22?
- Level
- 20.00
- Weight
- 3.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECA45-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-45?
- Level
- 19.00
- Weight
- 3.0%
- 30D
- +9.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSETX28-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-28?
- Level
- 19.00
- Weight
- 2.8%
- 30D
- -3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Up
HOUSETX15-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-15?
- Level
- 55.50
- Weight
- 2.8%
- 30D
- +2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA21-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for CA-21?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 2.6%
- 30D
- -6.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSETX34-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for TX-34?
- Level
- 29.00
- Weight
- 2.5%
- 30D
- -1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-13?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 2.5%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECA3-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-3?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA41-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-41?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA27-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-27?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEIN1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for IN-1?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IN · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECA9-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-9?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECA49-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?
- Level
- 1.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSECA47-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CA-47?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEFL23-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-23?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
FL · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENY18-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NY-18?
- Level
- 6.33
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -7.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENE2-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NE-2?
- Level
- 19.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NE · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSEPA7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?
- Level
- 29.00
- Weight
- 1.9%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENY4-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NY-4?
- Level
- 14.50
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- -7.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENJ7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NJ-7?
- Level
- 23.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- -5.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEFL13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for FL-13?
- Level
- 81.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
FL · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEWA3-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WA-3?
- Level
- 22.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEPA10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?
- Level
- 18.67
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- -4.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEAZ6-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?
- Level
- 21.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEME2-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for ME-2?
- Level
- 68.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
ME · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENC1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?
- Level
- 51.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- -2.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEPA8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?
- Level
- 43.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEPA1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?
- Level
- 62.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +6.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENY22-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NY-22?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- -4.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMI10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-10?
- Level
- 40.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENY19-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NY-19?
- Level
- 15.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- -6.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NY · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSEOH1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for OH-1?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OH · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEAZ2-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?
- Level
- 69.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSEPA17-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSENV1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMI7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?
- Level
- 34.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +16.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEWI1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?
- Level
- 70.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- +2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEAZ1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?
- Level
- 32.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEVA7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for VA-7?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
VA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMT1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MT-1?
- Level
- 64.50
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- +6.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MT · kalshi
- Up
KXHOUSEUT03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for UT-03?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- +5.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
- Down
HOUSECO8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for CO-8?
- Level
- 28.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- -7.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CO · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMI4-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?
- Level
- 69.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +4.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Up
KXHOUSEUT02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for UT-02?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMI3-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEUT01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for UT-01?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
UT · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEMI8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSENJ5-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NJ-5?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENJ9-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NJ-9?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- -1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEVA10-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for VA-10?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
VA · kalshi
- Flat
KXHOUSEWA8-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for WA-08?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WA · kalshi
- Up
HOUSEMN2-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for MN-2?
- Level
- 11.67
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MN · kalshi
- Down
HOUSEIA1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for IA-1?
- Level
- 28.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- -3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IA · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSECT5-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for CT-5?
- Level
- 16.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CT · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSENH1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NH-1?
- Level
- 16.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NH · kalshi
- Down
HOUSENV3-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?
- Level
- 14.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
- Flat
HOUSENV4-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSEOR5-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for OR-5?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OR · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
58 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 74.12 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 74.12 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 74.05 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 73.96 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 74.01 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 74.24 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | 74.58 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 74.56 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 74.73 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 74.47 |
Show 90 older daily observations
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | 74.58 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 74.69 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 74.56 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | 74.57 |
| Jul 11, 2026 | 74.51 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 74.55 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 74.75 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 74.68 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 74.83 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 74.84 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | 74.91 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | 74.85 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 74.91 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 75.02 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 75.17 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 75.35 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 75.27 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 75.34 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 75.48 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 75.68 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 75.55 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 75.49 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 75.47 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 75.41 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 76.02 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | 76.24 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 76.46 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 76.72 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 76.89 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 78.31 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 79.27 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 79.09 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | 78.41 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 78.45 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 78.71 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 78.95 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 79.16 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 79.34 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | 79.43 |
| Jun 6, 2026 | 79.43 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 79.40 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 79.57 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 79.81 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 79.83 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 79.22 |
| May 31, 2026 | 79.11 |
| May 30, 2026 | 79.10 |
| May 29, 2026 | 78.83 |
| May 28, 2026 | 79.14 |
| May 27, 2026 | 79.54 |
| May 26, 2026 | 79.78 |
| May 25, 2026 | 79.52 |
| May 24, 2026 | 80.82 |
| May 23, 2026 | 80.60 |
| May 22, 2026 | 80.88 |
| May 21, 2026 | 76.19 |
| May 20, 2026 | 76.14 |
| May 19, 2026 | 76.19 |
| May 18, 2026 | 76.44 |
| May 17, 2026 | 76.49 |
| May 16, 2026 | 76.50 |
| May 15, 2026 | 76.76 |
| May 14, 2026 | 76.69 |
| May 13, 2026 | 76.71 |
| May 12, 2026 | 76.67 |
| May 11, 2026 | 76.64 |
| May 10, 2026 | 76.62 |
| May 9, 2026 | 76.58 |
| May 8, 2026 | 76.79 |
| May 7, 2026 | 77.69 |
| May 6, 2026 | 77.74 |
| May 5, 2026 | 77.42 |
| May 4, 2026 | 77.10 |
| May 3, 2026 | 76.95 |
| May 2, 2026 | 76.92 |
| May 1, 2026 | 77.00 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 76.70 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 76.81 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 76.84 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 77.20 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | 77.31 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | 77.22 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 77.19 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 77.20 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 77.22 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 77.32 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 77.32 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 77.38 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | 77.41 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 77.40 |