US Politics · BLUE

Democrat Political Future Index

Composite of Democrat party-line contests across all levels of office in the United States

105.59

-0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.1 pts

7D change

-0.7 pts

Sub-indices

5

Implied probability

55.6%

Democrat Political Future Index is at 105.6 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 55.6% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

106.9106.3105.6105.0Aug 11Aug 25Sep 10

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Sep 10, 2026, 3:14 AM UTCRange 105.20–106.68

Constituents

The office sub-indices and fixed weights that make up this composite.

  • PRESD

    Presidential (D)

    Flat
    Level
    107.50
    Weight
    40.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts

  • SEND

    Senate (D)

    Up
    Level
    101.94
    Weight
    30.0%
    30D
    +0.1 pts

  • HOUSED

    House (D)

    Up
    Level
    106.54
    Weight
    20.0%
    30D
    +1.4 pts

  • GOVD

    Gubernatorial (D)

    Up
    Level
    107.31
    Weight
    8.0%
    30D
    +0.7 pts

  • MAYORD

    Mayoral (D)

    Level
    113.50
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    —

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

544 markets

0–10%
182 · 33.5%
10–20%
45 · 8.3%
20–30%
12 · 2.2%
30–40%
13 · 2.4%
40–50%
9 · 1.7%
50–60%
11 · 2.0%
60–70%
17 · 3.1%
70–80%
13 · 2.4%
80–90%
15 · 2.8%
90–100%
227 · 41.7%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Sep 8, 2026105.65
Sep 7, 2026105.58
Sep 6, 2026105.88
Sep 5, 2026106.07
Sep 4, 2026105.96
Sep 3, 2026106.13
Sep 2, 2026106.25
Sep 1, 2026106.68
Aug 31, 2026106.46
Aug 30, 2026105.93
Show 85 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Aug 29, 2026105.67
Aug 28, 2026105.73
Aug 27, 2026105.53
Aug 26, 2026105.49
Aug 25, 2026105.79
Aug 24, 2026105.28
Aug 23, 2026105.32
Aug 22, 2026105.53
Aug 21, 2026105.48
Aug 20, 2026105.45
Aug 19, 2026105.47
Aug 18, 2026105.46
Aug 17, 2026105.55
Aug 16, 2026105.93
Aug 15, 2026105.95
Aug 14, 2026106.12
Aug 13, 2026105.71
Aug 12, 2026105.78
Aug 11, 2026105.20
Aug 10, 2026105.20
Aug 9, 2026105.09
Aug 8, 2026104.70
Aug 7, 2026104.73
Aug 6, 2026104.72
Aug 5, 2026104.70
Aug 4, 2026104.99
Aug 3, 2026104.80
Aug 2, 2026104.81
Aug 1, 2026104.85
Jul 31, 2026104.52
Jul 30, 2026104.83
Jul 29, 2026104.74
Jul 28, 2026104.40
Jul 27, 2026104.28
Jul 26, 2026109.16
Jul 25, 2026109.18
Jul 24, 2026109.23
Jul 23, 2026109.22
Jul 22, 2026109.14
Jul 21, 2026109.23
Jul 20, 2026109.25
Jul 19, 2026109.03
Jul 18, 2026109.39
Jul 17, 2026109.31
Jul 16, 2026109.35
Jul 15, 2026109.32
Jul 14, 2026109.49
Jul 13, 2026109.54
Jul 12, 2026109.55
Jul 11, 2026109.51
Jul 10, 2026109.55
Jul 9, 2026109.52
Jul 8, 2026109.56
Jul 7, 2026109.39
Jul 6, 2026109.27
Jul 5, 2026109.12
Jul 4, 2026109.19
Jul 3, 2026109.19
Jul 2, 2026109.16
Jul 1, 2026109.20
Jun 30, 2026109.28
Jun 29, 2026109.19
Jun 28, 2026109.25
Jun 27, 2026109.18
Jun 26, 2026109.16
Jun 25, 2026109.14
Jun 24, 2026108.69
Jun 23, 2026108.56
Jun 22, 2026108.69
Jun 21, 2026108.81
Jun 20, 2026108.49
Jun 19, 2026108.47
Jun 18, 2026108.09
Jun 17, 2026108.12
Jun 16, 2026108.33
Jun 15, 2026107.59
Jun 14, 2026107.56
Jun 13, 2026107.57
Jun 12, 2026107.90
Jun 11, 2026107.35
Jun 10, 2026107.50
Jun 9, 2026107.45
Jun 8, 2026107.78
Jun 7, 2026107.77
Jun 6, 2026107.76