US Politics · GOVD

Gubernatorial (D)

Tracking Democrat Gubernatorial races

105.58

-0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.1 pts

7D change

+0.1 pts

Markets

44

Implied probability

55.6%

Gubernatorial (D) is at 105.6 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 55.6% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

108.1106.2104.4102.5Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 103.01–107.52

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • GOVPARTYCA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    6.7%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAZ-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona

    Up
    Level
    81.00
    Weight
    4.4%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOH-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio

    Down
    Level
    45.00
    Weight
    4.3%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTX-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas

    Flat
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    4.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYGA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia

    Up
    Level
    60.00
    Weight
    4.3%
    30D
    +14.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNY-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York

    Up
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    4.1%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYFL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida

    Down
    Level
    20.00
    Weight
    3.6%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa

    Down
    Level
    64.00
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMN-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Minnesota

    Up
    Level
    92.50
    Weight
    3.0%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan

    Flat
    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin

    Down
    Level
    55.50
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    -17.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNV-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada

    Down
    Level
    58.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    -5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYPA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

    Flat
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Illinois

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOK-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oklahoma

    Up
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.4%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOR-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon

    Flat
    Level
    85.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alabama

    Down
    Level
    10.50
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCO-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Colorado

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTN-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Tennessee

    Flat
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSC-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Carolina

    Flat
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMD-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYME-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maine

    Up
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNE-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nebraska

    Up
    Level
    18.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCT-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Connecticut

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNM-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico

    Up
    Level
    89.50
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NM · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAR-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arkansas

    Up
    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYRI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Rhode Island

    Up
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    RI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYHI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Hawaii

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    HI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

    Up
    Level
    15.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYID-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Idaho

    Up
    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ID · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKS-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kansas

    Down
    Level
    23.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -4.8 pts
    Expires
    Jan 14, 2028

    KS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSD-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Dakota

    Up
    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWY-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wyoming

    Flat
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKY-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

    Up
    Level
    22.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    KY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYLA-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Louisiana

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 12, 2028

    LA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMS-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Mississippi

    Up
    Level
    13.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    MS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNC-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina

    Down
    Level
    67.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWA-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Washington

    Flat
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMO-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Missouri

    Flat
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYUT-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Utah

    Flat
    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    UT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWV-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in West Virginia

    Flat
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNH-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Hampshire

    Down
    Level
    21.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMT-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Montana

    Level
    56.50
    Weight
    0.5%
    30D
    —
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MT · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

44 markets

0–10%
10 · 22.7%
10–20%
9 · 20.5%
20–30%
1 · 2.3%
30–40%
0 · 0.0%
40–50%
1 · 2.3%
50–60%
4 · 9.1%
60–70%
2 · 4.5%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
5 · 11.4%
90–100%
12 · 27.3%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 2026105.63
Jul 24, 2026105.72
Jul 23, 2026105.68
Jul 22, 2026105.69
Jul 21, 2026105.59
Jul 20, 2026105.60
Jul 19, 2026105.55
Jul 18, 2026105.69
Jul 17, 2026105.69
Jul 16, 2026105.65
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 2026106.71
Jul 14, 2026107.48
Jul 13, 2026107.41
Jul 12, 2026107.37
Jul 11, 2026107.50
Jul 10, 2026107.52
Jul 9, 2026107.48
Jul 8, 2026105.41
Jul 7, 2026103.22
Jul 6, 2026103.38
Jul 5, 2026103.14
Jul 4, 2026103.14
Jul 3, 2026103.15
Jul 2, 2026103.06
Jul 1, 2026103.01
Jun 30, 2026103.03
Jun 29, 2026103.15
Jun 28, 2026103.19
Jun 27, 2026103.21
Jun 26, 2026103.16
Jun 25, 2026102.61
Jun 24, 2026102.24
Jun 23, 2026102.34
Jun 22, 2026102.44
Jun 21, 2026102.52
Jun 20, 2026102.52
Jun 19, 2026102.31
Jun 18, 2026102.46
Jun 17, 2026102.64
Jun 16, 2026102.72
Jun 15, 2026102.57
Jun 14, 2026102.46
Jun 13, 2026102.54
Jun 12, 2026102.58
Jun 11, 2026102.50
Jun 10, 2026102.52
Jun 9, 2026102.51
Jun 8, 2026102.39
Jun 7, 2026102.40
Jun 6, 2026102.38
Jun 5, 2026102.41
Jun 4, 2026102.59
Jun 3, 2026102.66
Jun 2, 2026102.62
Jun 1, 2026101.91
May 31, 2026102.09
May 30, 2026102.15
May 29, 2026102.10
May 28, 2026102.35
May 27, 2026102.43
May 26, 2026102.37
May 25, 2026102.47
May 24, 2026102.88
May 23, 2026102.98
May 22, 2026103.07
May 21, 2026102.08
May 20, 2026101.67
May 19, 2026101.48
May 18, 2026101.61
May 17, 2026101.74
May 16, 2026101.88
May 15, 2026101.88
May 14, 2026101.95
May 13, 2026101.91
May 12, 2026101.92
May 11, 2026101.87
May 10, 2026101.91
May 9, 2026101.97
May 8, 2026101.93
May 7, 2026102.01
May 6, 2026102.01
May 5, 2026101.85
May 4, 2026101.93
May 3, 2026101.93
May 2, 2026102.10
May 1, 2026101.93
Apr 30, 2026102.06
Apr 29, 2026102.12
Apr 28, 2026102.24
Apr 27, 2026102.33
Apr 26, 2026102.36
Apr 25, 2026102.42
Apr 24, 2026102.25
Apr 23, 2026102.23
Apr 22, 2026102.20
Apr 21, 2026102.39
Apr 20, 2026102.23
Apr 19, 2026102.23
Apr 18, 2026102.23
Apr 17, 2026102.24