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  • All (18)
  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
    • Presidential (R)
    • Presidential (D)
    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
    • House (D)
    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
  • Sports (28)
  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · GOVD

Gubernatorial (D)

Tracking Democrat Gubernatorial races

107.48

+0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.1 pts

7D change

+0.3 pts

Markets

49

Implied probability

57.5%

Gubernatorial (D) is at 107.5 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 57.5% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

109.2107.8106.5105.1Sep 26Oct 10Oct 25

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 5:45 AM UTCRange 105.45–108.80

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • GOVPARTYTX-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas

    Up
    Level
    33.50
    Weight
    6.0%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYFL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida

    Down
    Level
    18.50
    Weight
    4.7%
    30D
    -4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California

    Up
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    4.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOH-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio

    Up
    Level
    80.50
    Weight
    3.9%
    30D
    +19.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNY-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    3.7%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYGA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia

    Up
    Level
    58.50
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNV-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada

    Up
    Level
    67.50
    Weight
    3.0%
    30D
    +21.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa

    Up
    Level
    86.50
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYPA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

    Down
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAZ-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona

    Up
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin

    Down
    Level
    79.50
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    -4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Illinois

    Down
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMA-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMN-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Minnesota

    Flat
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTN-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Tennessee

    Down
    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOK-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oklahoma

    Up
    Level
    10.50
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAL-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alabama

    Down
    Level
    5.50
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCO-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Colorado

    Down
    Level
    96.50
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOR-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon

    Down
    Level
    78.50
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -6.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMD-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland

    Up
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSC-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Carolina

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

    Up
    Level
    25.50
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCT-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Connecticut

    Flat
    Level
    96.50
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAR-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arkansas

    Down
    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNM-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico

    Up
    Level
    93.50
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NM · kalshi

  • KXGOVPARTYAK-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alaska

    Up
    Level
    86.50
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +12.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNE-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nebraska

    Up
    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYME-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maine

    Up
    Level
    95.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKS-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kansas

    Down
    Level
    25.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Jan 14, 2028

    KS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYID-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Idaho

    Up
    Level
    3.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ID · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYRI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Rhode Island

    Down
    Level
    95.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    RI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYHI-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Hawaii

    Flat
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    HI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSD-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Dakota

    Flat
    Level
    2.50
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWY-26-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wyoming

    Down
    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKY-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

    Up
    Level
    23.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    KY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYLA-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Louisiana

    Flat
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 12, 2028

    LA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMS-27-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Mississippi

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    MS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNC-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina

    Flat
    Level
    66.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWA-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Washington

    Down
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIN-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Indiana

    Flat
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    IN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMO-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Missouri

    Down
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNH-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Hampshire

    Down
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYUT-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Utah

    Down
    Level
    12.00
    Weight
    0.7%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    UT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWV-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in West Virginia

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMT-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Montana

    Flat
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYDE-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Delaware

    Down
    Level
    88.50
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    -4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    DE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYND-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Dakota

    Up
    Level
    14.50
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    ND · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-28-D

    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

    Up
    Level
    44.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    VT · kalshi

TickerMarketLevelWeight30D

GOVPARTYTX-26-D

kalshi · TX

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.9M · Open interest $1.9M

33.506.0%+8.0 pts

GOVPARTYFL-26-D

kalshi · FL

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.9M · Open interest $1.2M

18.504.7%-4.0 pts

GOVPARTYCA-26-D

kalshi · CA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $558K · Open interest $324.1K

97.004.2%+0.5 pts

GOVPARTYOH-26-D

kalshi · OH

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.7M · Open interest $1.1M

80.503.9%+19.0 pts

GOVPARTYNY-26-D

kalshi · NY

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.1M · Open interest $871.5K

95.003.7%+0.5 pts

GOVPARTYGA-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.1M · Open interest $496.9K

58.503.3%+5.0 pts

GOVPARTYNV-26-D

kalshi · NV

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.2M · Open interest $567.9K

67.503.0%+21.0 pts

GOVPARTYIA-26-D

kalshi · IA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $865.5K · Open interest $639.9K

86.502.7%+4.0 pts

GOVPARTYPA-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $279.5K · Open interest $253.4K

97.002.6%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYAZ-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $497.1K · Open interest $290.9K

90.002.6%+0.5 pts

GOVPARTYWI-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $549.4K · Open interest $256.5K

79.502.5%-4.0 pts

GOVPARTYIL-26-D

kalshi · IL

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Illinois

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $162.5K · Open interest $138.8K

97.002.5%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYMA-26-D

kalshi · MA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $422.2K · Open interest $315.1K

96.002.5%+1.5 pts

GOVPARTYMI-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $110.8K · Open interest $84.9K

93.002.3%+0.5 pts

GOVPARTYMN-26-D

kalshi · MN

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Minnesota

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $224.7K · Open interest $125.3K

95.002.2%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYTN-26-D

kalshi · TN

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Tennessee

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $131.9K · Open interest $93.4K

4.502.2%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYOK-26-D

kalshi · OK

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oklahoma

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $217.4K · Open interest $138.8K

10.502.1%+2.0 pts

GOVPARTYAL-26-D

kalshi · AL

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alabama

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $138.4K · Open interest $98.8K

5.502.1%-1.5 pts

GOVPARTYCO-26-D

kalshi · CO

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Colorado

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $89.6K · Open interest $74.9K

96.502.1%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYOR-26-D

kalshi · OR

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $155.8K · Open interest $86.8K

78.502.1%-6.5 pts

GOVPARTYMD-26-D

kalshi · MD

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $15.8K · Open interest $13.9K

97.502.0%+0.5 pts

GOVPARTYSC-26-D

kalshi · SC

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Carolina

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $35.2K · Open interest $20.5K

5.002.0%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYVT-26-D

kalshi · VT

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $282.8K · Open interest $150.7K

25.502.0%+8.0 pts

GOVPARTYCT-26-D

kalshi · CT

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Connecticut

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $20.3K · Open interest $15.8K

96.501.9%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYAR-26-D

kalshi · AR

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arkansas

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $19K · Open interest $13.5K

2.001.9%-2.0 pts

GOVPARTYNM-26-D

kalshi · NM

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $53.9K · Open interest $34K

93.501.9%+0.5 pts

KXGOVPARTYAK-26-D

kalshi · AK

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alaska

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $113.2K · Open interest $40.6K

86.501.9%+12.5 pts

GOVPARTYNE-26-D

kalshi · NE

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nebraska

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $32.8K · Open interest $27K

14.001.9%+8.0 pts

GOVPARTYME-26-D

kalshi · ME

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maine

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $48.1K · Open interest $19.7K

95.501.8%+1.0 pts

GOVPARTYKS-27-D

kalshi · KS

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kansas

Expires Jan 14, 2028

Volume $76.3K · Open interest $48.9K

25.501.8%-1.0 pts

GOVPARTYID-26-D

kalshi · ID

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Idaho

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $3.7K · Open interest $3.3K

3.501.8%+1.0 pts

GOVPARTYRI-26-D

kalshi · RI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Rhode Island

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $38K · Open interest $19.1K

95.501.8%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYHI-26-D

kalshi · HI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Hawaii

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8.9K · Open interest $4.7K

97.501.8%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYSD-26-D

kalshi · SD

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Dakota

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $5.2K · Open interest $4.5K

2.501.8%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYWY-26-D

kalshi · WY

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wyoming

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $7.6K · Open interest $2.9K

2.001.8%-1.5 pts

GOVPARTYKY-27-D

kalshi · KY

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

Expires Nov 1, 2028

Volume $11.4K · Open interest $6.6K

23.001.4%+4.5 pts

GOVPARTYLA-27-D

kalshi · LA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Louisiana

Expires Nov 12, 2028

Volume $345.6 · Open interest $220.1

9.001.4%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYMS-27-D

kalshi · MS

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Mississippi

Expires Nov 1, 2028

Volume $4.3K · Open interest $3.5K

11.001.3%+3.5 pts

GOVPARTYNC-28-D

kalshi · NC

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $2.8K · Open interest $625.5

66.501.1%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYWA-28-D

kalshi · WA

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Washington

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $10.3K · Open interest $3.8K

94.001.0%-1.0 pts

GOVPARTYIN-28-D

kalshi · IN

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Indiana

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $780.8 · Open interest $449.8

10.000.9%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYMO-28-D

kalshi · MO

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Missouri

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $714.8 · Open interest $156.1

6.000.9%-3.0 pts

GOVPARTYNH-28-D

kalshi · NH

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Hampshire

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $172.1K · Open interest $162.2K

6.000.8%-2.5 pts

GOVPARTYUT-28-D

kalshi · UT

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Utah

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $1.7K · Open interest $753.8

12.000.7%-0.5 pts

GOVPARTYWV-28-D

kalshi · WV

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in West Virginia

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $3.5K · Open interest $625.3

11.000.6%+1.5 pts

GOVPARTYMT-28-D

kalshi · MT

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Montana

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $197.1 · Open interest $72.2

10.000.6%+0.0 pts

GOVPARTYDE-28-D

kalshi · DE

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Delaware

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $77.5 · Open interest $63.5

88.500.6%-4.0 pts

GOVPARTYND-28-D

kalshi · ND

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Dakota

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $2.8K · Open interest $376.1

14.500.6%+1.0 pts

GOVPARTYVT-28-D

kalshi · VT

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $5.3K · Open interest $1.9K

44.000.6%+0.5 pts

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

49 markets

0–10%
10 · 20.4%
10–20%
9 · 18.4%
20–30%
3 · 6.1%
30–40%
1 · 2.0%
40–50%
1 · 2.0%
50–60%
1 · 2.0%
60–70%
2 · 4.1%
70–80%
2 · 4.1%
80–90%
4 · 8.2%
90–100%
16 · 32.7%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 24, 2026107.42
Oct 23, 2026107.53
Oct 22, 2026107.98
Oct 21, 2026108.80
Oct 20, 2026107.98
Oct 19, 2026107.14
Oct 18, 2026107.19
Oct 17, 2026108.23
Oct 16, 2026108.12
Oct 15, 2026106.98
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 14, 2026105.74
Oct 13, 2026105.48
Oct 12, 2026105.77
Oct 11, 2026105.89
Oct 10, 2026105.86
Oct 9, 2026106.29
Oct 8, 2026106.32
Oct 7, 2026106.31
Oct 6, 2026106.59
Oct 5, 2026106.17
Oct 4, 2026105.88
Oct 3, 2026105.77
Oct 2, 2026105.45
Oct 1, 2026105.50
Sep 30, 2026105.82
Sep 29, 2026106.77
Sep 28, 2026106.77
Sep 27, 2026106.92
Sep 26, 2026107.02
Sep 25, 2026106.83
Sep 24, 2026107.53
Sep 23, 2026106.69
Sep 22, 2026107.00
Sep 21, 2026106.31
Sep 20, 2026107.28
Sep 19, 2026107.15
Sep 18, 2026105.90
Sep 17, 2026106.08
Sep 16, 2026107.27
Sep 15, 2026107.36
Sep 14, 2026107.52
Sep 13, 2026107.57
Sep 12, 2026107.67
Sep 11, 2026107.67
Sep 10, 2026107.57
Sep 9, 2026107.37
Sep 8, 2026107.23
Sep 7, 2026107.60
Sep 6, 2026107.73
Sep 5, 2026107.63
Sep 4, 2026107.81
Sep 3, 2026108.05
Sep 2, 2026106.94
Sep 1, 2026107.65
Aug 31, 2026107.60
Aug 30, 2026107.55
Aug 29, 2026106.40
Aug 28, 2026106.52
Aug 27, 2026106.53
Aug 26, 2026106.37
Aug 25, 2026106.40
Aug 24, 2026106.44
Aug 23, 2026107.56
Aug 22, 2026107.57
Aug 21, 2026107.15
Aug 20, 2026107.10
Aug 19, 2026107.00
Aug 18, 2026108.34
Aug 17, 2026108.12
Aug 16, 2026107.88
Aug 15, 2026107.83
Aug 14, 2026107.84
Aug 13, 2026107.03
Aug 12, 2026107.26
Aug 11, 2026105.74
Aug 10, 2026106.56
Aug 9, 2026105.47
Aug 8, 2026104.29
Aug 7, 2026104.64
Aug 6, 2026104.53
Aug 5, 2026104.25
Aug 4, 2026104.45
Aug 3, 2026105.98
Aug 2, 2026105.88
Aug 1, 2026106.13
Jul 31, 2026106.13
Jul 30, 2026106.15
Jul 29, 2026105.95
Jul 28, 2026106.05
Jul 27, 2026105.84
Jul 26, 2026105.52
Jul 25, 2026105.56
Jul 24, 2026105.66
Jul 23, 2026105.74
Jul 22, 2026105.64
Jul 21, 2026105.71
Jul 20, 2026105.55
Jul 19, 2026105.57
Jul 18, 2026105.61
Jul 17, 2026105.73

About this index

How Gubernatorial (D) is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
Governor
Methodology
upfi
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Largest weighted input

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas

GOVPARTYTX-26-D · 6.0% weight · 33.5 level

Other leading input

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida

GOVPARTYFL-26-D · 4.7% weight · 18.5 level

Other leading input

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California

GOVPARTYCA-26-D · 4.2% weight · 97.0 level

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
-0.1%
1W
-0.8%
1M
-0.1%
3M
+1.8%
YTD
—
1Y
—

Risk statistics

Volatility
9.70%
Daily volatility
0.51%
Range high
108.80
Range low
105.45
Period return
-0.11%

Geographic exposure

Largest state weights across 48 covered states.

TX
6.0%

1 market · 33.5% average probability

FL
4.7%

1 market · 18.5% average probability

CA
4.2%

1 market · 97.0% average probability

OH
3.9%

1 market · 80.5% average probability

NY
3.7%

1 market · 95.0% average probability

GA
3.3%

1 market · 58.5% average probability

Show all 48 states
NV
3.0%

1 market · 67.5% average probability

IA
2.7%

1 market · 86.5% average probability

PA
2.6%

1 market · 97.0% average probability

VT
2.6%

2 markets · 29.7% average probability

AZ
2.6%

1 market · 90.0% average probability

WI
2.5%

1 market · 79.5% average probability

IL
2.5%

1 market · 97.0% average probability

MA
2.5%

1 market · 96.0% average probability

MI
2.3%

1 market · 93.0% average probability

MN
2.2%

1 market · 95.0% average probability

TN
2.2%

1 market · 4.5% average probability

OK
2.1%

1 market · 10.5% average probability

AL
2.1%

1 market · 5.5% average probability

CO
2.1%

1 market · 96.5% average probability

OR
2.1%

1 market · 78.5% average probability

MD
2.0%

1 market · 97.5% average probability

SC
2.0%

1 market · 5.0% average probability

CT
1.9%

1 market · 96.5% average probability

AR
1.9%

1 market · 2.0% average probability

NM
1.9%

1 market · 93.5% average probability

AK
1.9%

1 market · 86.5% average probability

NE
1.9%

1 market · 14.0% average probability

ME
1.8%

1 market · 95.5% average probability

KS
1.8%

1 market · 25.5% average probability

ID
1.8%

1 market · 3.5% average probability

RI
1.8%

1 market · 95.5% average probability

HI
1.8%

1 market · 97.5% average probability

SD
1.8%

1 market · 2.5% average probability

WY
1.8%

1 market · 2.0% average probability

KY
1.4%

1 market · 23.0% average probability

LA
1.4%

1 market · 9.0% average probability

MS
1.3%

1 market · 11.0% average probability

NC
1.1%

1 market · 66.5% average probability

WA
1.0%

1 market · 94.0% average probability

IN
0.9%

1 market · 10.0% average probability

MO
0.9%

1 market · 6.0% average probability

NH
0.8%

1 market · 6.0% average probability

UT
0.7%

1 market · 12.0% average probability

WV
0.6%

1 market · 11.0% average probability

MT
0.6%

1 market · 10.0% average probability

DE
0.6%

1 market · 88.5% average probability

ND
0.6%

1 market · 14.5% average probability

Maturity schedule

Nov 3, 2027

34 markets

85.7%

Jan 14, 2028

1 market

1.8%

Nov 1, 2028

2 markets

2.7%

Nov 12, 2028

1 market

1.4%

Nov 7, 2029

11 markets

8.4%