US Politics · RED

Republican Political Future Index

Composite of Republican party-line contests across all levels of office in the United States

90.89

-0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.0 pts

7D change

+0.3 pts

Sub-indices

5

Implied probability

40.9%

Republican Political Future Index is at 90.9 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 40.9% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

91.391.090.790.4Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 90.48–91.22

Constituents

The office sub-indices and fixed weights that make up this composite.

  • PRESR

    Presidential (R)

    Up
    Level
    91.50
    Weight
    40.0%
    30D
    +0.5 pts

  • SENR

    Senate (R)

    Down
    Level
    100.24
    Weight
    30.0%
    30D
    -0.4 pts

  • HOUSER

    House (R)

    Down
    Level
    74.10
    Weight
    20.0%
    30D
    -1.6 pts

  • GOVR

    Gubernatorial (R)

    Down
    Level
    94.75
    Weight
    8.0%
    30D
    -2.3 pts

  • MAYORR

    Mayoral (R)

    Level
    100.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    —

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

139 markets

0–10%
40 · 28.8%
10–20%
26 · 18.7%
20–30%
9 · 6.5%
30–40%
6 · 4.3%
40–50%
7 · 5.0%
50–60%
6 · 4.3%
60–70%
6 · 4.3%
70–80%
3 · 2.2%
80–90%
14 · 10.1%
90–100%
22 · 15.8%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 202690.85
Jul 24, 202690.66
Jul 23, 202690.72
Jul 22, 202690.71
Jul 21, 202690.73
Jul 20, 202690.64
Jul 19, 202690.59
Jul 18, 202690.60
Jul 17, 202691.05
Jul 16, 202691.05
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 202691.01
Jul 14, 202690.87
Jul 13, 202690.57
Jul 12, 202690.51
Jul 11, 202690.49
Jul 10, 202690.50
Jul 9, 202690.48
Jul 8, 202690.50
Jul 7, 202690.67
Jul 6, 202691.02
Jul 5, 202691.12
Jul 4, 202690.97
Jul 3, 202691.02
Jul 2, 202690.90
Jul 1, 202690.68
Jun 30, 202690.78
Jun 29, 202690.67
Jun 28, 202690.85
Jun 27, 202691.22
Jun 26, 202691.28
Jun 25, 202691.21
Jun 24, 202691.23
Jun 23, 202691.16
Jun 22, 202690.97
Jun 21, 202691.07
Jun 20, 202691.18
Jun 19, 202691.16
Jun 18, 202691.22
Jun 17, 202691.28
Jun 16, 202691.52
Jun 15, 202691.72
Jun 14, 202691.57
Jun 13, 202691.67
Jun 12, 202691.63
Jun 11, 202691.67
Jun 10, 202691.40
Jun 9, 202691.31
Jun 8, 202690.57
Jun 7, 202690.48
Jun 6, 202690.50
Jun 5, 202690.43
Jun 4, 202690.65
Jun 3, 202690.44
Jun 2, 202690.62
Jun 1, 202690.65
May 31, 202690.62
May 30, 202690.51
May 29, 202690.43
May 28, 202690.47
May 27, 202690.34
May 26, 202690.09
May 25, 202689.95
May 24, 202690.26
May 23, 202690.29
May 22, 202690.32
May 21, 202689.29
May 20, 202689.30
May 19, 202689.31
May 18, 202689.37
May 17, 202689.32
May 16, 202689.32
May 15, 202689.41
May 14, 202689.37
May 13, 202689.47
May 12, 202689.55
May 11, 202689.57
May 10, 202689.52
May 9, 202689.41
May 8, 202689.22
May 7, 202689.24
May 6, 202689.10
May 5, 202688.97
May 4, 202688.95
May 3, 202689.23
May 2, 202689.23
May 1, 202689.23
Apr 30, 202689.08
Apr 29, 202688.80
Apr 28, 202688.74
Apr 27, 202688.80
Apr 26, 202688.80
Apr 25, 202688.52
Apr 24, 202688.40
Apr 23, 202688.46
Apr 22, 202688.52
Apr 21, 202688.73
Apr 20, 202689.07
Apr 19, 202689.13
Apr 18, 202689.35
Apr 17, 202689.49