US Politics · SENR

Senate (R)

Tracking Republican Senate Races

100.24

+0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.1 pts

7D change

-0.1 pts

Markets

35

Implied probability

50.2%

Senate (R) is at 100.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 50.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

100.7100.299.899.3Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 99.43–100.54

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • SENATETX-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

    Down
    Level
    56.29
    Weight
    7.0%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • SENATEME-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?

    Down
    Level
    39.00
    Weight
    5.1%
    30D
    -3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • SENATEGA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    3.5%
    30D
    -6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • SENATEIA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

    Down
    Level
    60.00
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • SENATEOHS-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?

    Up
    Level
    53.00
    Weight
    3.1%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • SENATESC-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?

    Down
    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    2.9%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SC · kalshi

  • SENATEAK-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?

    Up
    Level
    46.00
    Weight
    2.9%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AK · kalshi

  • SENATENE-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?

    Up
    Level
    69.67
    Weight
    2.9%
    30D
    +4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • SENATEMI-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?

    Down
    Level
    30.00
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • SENATENC-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

    Down
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    -3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • SENATEMT-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana?

    Up
    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MT · kalshi

  • SENATENH-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

    Up
    Level
    16.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NH · kalshi

  • SENATEKS-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?

    Up
    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    KS · kalshi

  • SENATEFLS-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?

    Up
    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • SENATELA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kentucky?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    LA · kalshi

  • SENATEMN-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?

    Down
    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    -0.8 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • SENATENJ-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Jersey?

    Up
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NJ · kalshi

  • SENATEMS-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi?

    Up
    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MS · kalshi

  • SENATEID-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?

    Down
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ID · kalshi

  • SENATECO-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • SENATEWY-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wyoming?

    Up
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WY · kalshi

  • SENATEWV-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in West Virginia?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WV · kalshi

  • SENATEVA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Virginia?

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VA · kalshi

  • SENATESD-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SD · kalshi

  • SENATENM-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico?

    Up
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NM · kalshi

  • SENATETN-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Tennessee?

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TN · kalshi

  • SENATEIL-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?

    Up
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IL · kalshi

  • SENATEDE-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Delaware?

    Flat
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    DE · kalshi

  • SENATERI-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Rhode Island?

    Up
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    RI · kalshi

  • SENATEAR-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?

    Down
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AR · kalshi

  • SENATEOR-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon?

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • SENATEMA-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Massachusetts?

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MA · kalshi

  • SENATEAL-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alabama?

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AL · kalshi

  • SENATEOK-26-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?

    Flat
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OK · kalshi

  • SENATENH-28-R

    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

    Up
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    0.7%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NH · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

35 markets

0–10%
10 · 28.6%
10–20%
3 · 8.6%
20–30%
2 · 5.7%
30–40%
1 · 2.9%
40–50%
1 · 2.9%
50–60%
3 · 8.6%
60–70%
0 · 0.0%
70–80%
1 · 2.9%
80–90%
4 · 11.4%
90–100%
10 · 28.6%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 2026100.18
Jul 24, 2026100.19
Jul 23, 2026100.38
Jul 22, 2026100.42
Jul 21, 2026100.42
Jul 20, 2026100.31
Jul 19, 2026100.30
Jul 18, 2026100.35
Jul 17, 2026100.44
Jul 16, 2026100.54
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 2026100.38
Jul 14, 2026100.32
Jul 13, 2026100.09
Jul 12, 2026100.11
Jul 11, 2026100.11
Jul 10, 2026100.13
Jul 9, 202699.96
Jul 8, 202699.72
Jul 7, 202699.44
Jul 6, 202699.73
Jul 5, 202699.84
Jul 4, 202699.83
Jul 3, 202699.89
Jul 2, 202699.76
Jul 1, 202699.53
Jun 30, 202699.43
Jun 29, 202699.45
Jun 28, 202699.82
Jun 27, 2026100.46
Jun 26, 2026100.53
Jun 25, 202699.82
Jun 24, 202699.26
Jun 23, 202699.27
Jun 22, 202699.14
Jun 21, 202699.06
Jun 20, 202699.05
Jun 19, 202699.02
Jun 18, 202699.13
Jun 17, 202699.21
Jun 16, 202699.12
Jun 15, 202699.05
Jun 14, 202699.00
Jun 13, 202698.96
Jun 12, 202698.83
Jun 11, 202698.78
Jun 10, 202698.76
Jun 9, 202698.67
Jun 8, 202698.78
Jun 7, 202698.91
Jun 6, 202699.05
Jun 5, 202699.14
Jun 4, 202699.20
Jun 3, 202699.16
Jun 2, 202699.11
Jun 1, 202699.26
May 31, 202699.26
May 30, 202698.94
May 29, 202698.96
May 28, 202698.99
May 27, 202698.77
May 26, 202698.42
May 25, 202698.39
May 24, 202698.51
May 23, 202698.63
May 22, 202698.34
May 21, 202697.86
May 20, 202697.82
May 19, 202697.79
May 18, 202697.85
May 17, 202697.79
May 16, 202697.77
May 15, 202697.77
May 14, 202697.89
May 13, 202697.88
May 12, 202698.00
May 11, 202698.23
May 10, 202698.23
May 9, 202698.20
May 8, 202698.19
May 7, 202698.35
May 6, 202698.28
May 5, 202698.03
May 4, 202698.04
May 3, 202698.07
May 2, 202698.03
May 1, 202698.02
Apr 30, 202697.96
Apr 29, 202697.81
Apr 28, 202697.75
Apr 27, 202697.78
Apr 26, 202697.75
Apr 25, 202697.87
Apr 24, 202697.84
Apr 23, 202697.69
Apr 22, 202697.71
Apr 21, 202697.58
Apr 20, 202697.67
Apr 19, 202697.80
Apr 18, 202697.85
Apr 17, 202698.20