US Politics · SENR
Senate (R)
Tracking Republican Senate Races
101.93
-1.2 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
-1.2 pts
7D change
-1.1 pts
Markets
67
Implied probability
51.9%
Senate (R) is at 101.9 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 51.9% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
- Down
SENATETX-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
- Level
- 50.00
- Weight
- 5.4%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TX · kalshi
- Down
SENATEME-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
- Level
- 33.33
- Weight
- 3.5%
- 30D
- -2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
ME · kalshi
- Down
SENATEMI-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
- Level
- 38.00
- Weight
- 3.0%
- 30D
- -8.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
- Down
SENATEOHS-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
- Level
- 47.00
- Weight
- 2.8%
- 30D
- -3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OH · kalshi
- Up
SENATEIA-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
- Level
- 64.00
- Weight
- 2.6%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IA · kalshi
- Down
SENATEGA-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 2.5%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
- Up
SENATENC-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 2.4%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
- Down
SENATESC-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
- Level
- 86.00
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- -2.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
SC · kalshi
- Down
SENATEAK-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?
- Level
- 36.00
- Weight
- 2.3%
- 30D
- -10.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AK · kalshi
- Up
SENATEMN-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- +4.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MN · kalshi
- Up
SENATENE-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
- Level
- 73.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NE · kalshi
- Down
SENATEKS-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?
- Level
- 80.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- -1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
KS · kalshi
- Up
SENATENH-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
- Level
- 17.00
- Weight
- 2.2%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NH · kalshi
- Up
SENATEMT-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +5.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MT · kalshi
- Up
SENATEFLS-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +4.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
FL · kalshi
- Up
SENATELA-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kentucky?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
LA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEID-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +2.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
ID · kalshi
- Flat
SENATESD-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
SD · kalshi
- Up
SENATEMS-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MS · kalshi
SENATENJ-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Jersey?
- Level
- 0.00
- Weight
- 2.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NJ · kalshi
- Down
SENATEOK-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?
- Level
- 97.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -2.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OK · kalshi
- Flat
SENATECO-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
CO · kalshi
- Down
SENATEAR-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AR · kalshi
- Up
SENATEWY-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wyoming?
- Level
- 100.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WY · kalshi
- Up
KXSENATELA-26NOV-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
LA · kalshi
- Down
SENATEVA-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Virginia?
- Level
- 2.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
VA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEWV-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in West Virginia?
- Level
- 99.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WV · kalshi
- Up
SENATEIL-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
IL · kalshi
- Up
SENATEDE-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Delaware?
- Level
- 1.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
DE · kalshi
- Down
SENATETN-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Tennessee?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
TN · kalshi
SENATENM-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NM · kalshi
- Flat
SENATERI-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Rhode Island?
- Level
- 2.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
RI · kalshi
- Up
SENATEMA-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Massachusetts?
- Level
- 1.50
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEOR-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
OR · kalshi
- Flat
SENATEAL-26-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alabama?
- Level
- 98.00
- Weight
- 2.0%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AL · kalshi
- Up
SENATENC-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
- Level
- 42.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +9.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
NC · kalshi
- Down
SENATEOH-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
- Level
- 53.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- -8.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
OH · kalshi
- Up
SENATEAZ-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arizona?
- Level
- 25.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
AZ · kalshi
- Up
SENATEVT-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Vermont?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
VT · kalshi
- Up
SENATESC-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
- Level
- 84.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
SC · kalshi
- Up
SENATEFL-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +3.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
FL · kalshi
- Down
SENATEHI-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Hawaii?
- Level
- 12.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- -1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
HI · kalshi
- Up
SENATEPA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Pennsylvania?
- Level
- 26.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
PA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEID-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?
- Level
- 90.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
ID · kalshi
- Up
SENATELA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana?
- Level
- 86.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
LA · kalshi
SENATEIN-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Indiana?
- Level
- 58.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
IN · kalshi
- Flat
SENATEWA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Washington?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
WA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEUT-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Utah?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
UT · kalshi
- Up
SENATEWI-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wisconsin?
- Level
- 37.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
WI · kalshi
- Up
SENATECA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in California?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
CA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEAK-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?
- Level
- 71.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
AK · kalshi
- Up
SENATEMO-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Missouri?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
MO · kalshi
- Up
SENATEAR-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
AR · kalshi
- Up
SENATENY-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New York?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
NY · kalshi
- Up
SENATENV-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nevada?
- Level
- 42.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
NV · kalshi
- Down
SENATENH-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
- Level
- 12.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- -12.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
NH · kalshi
- Up
SENATEOR-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
OR · kalshi
- Flat
SENATECT-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Connecticut?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
CT · kalshi
- Up
SENATEGA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
- Level
- 30.67
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
GA · kalshi
- Up
SENATEND-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Dakota?
- Level
- 82.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
ND · kalshi
- Up
SENATEIA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
- Level
- 62.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
IA · kalshi
- Down
SENATEMD-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maryland?
- Level
- 4.50
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- -0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
MD · kalshi
- Up
SENATESD-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
SD · kalshi
- Down
SENATEOK-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- -2.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
OK · kalshi
- Up
SENATEIL-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +1.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
IL · kalshi
- Up
SENATEKS-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?
- Level
- 75.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +0.5 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
KS · kalshi
- Up
SENATECO-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 0.6%
- 30D
- +3.0 pts
- Expires
- Nov 7, 2029
CO · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
67 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | 103.11 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 103.08 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | 103.08 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 104.27 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 104.26 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 104.19 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 103.02 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 101.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 100.71 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | 100.62 |
Show 90 older daily observations
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | 100.63 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 100.76 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 100.90 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 100.66 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 100.42 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 101.82 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | 101.93 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 101.00 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 100.10 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 101.01 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 101.04 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 100.20 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 101.01 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 101.02 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 101.07 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 101.03 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 99.80 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 99.74 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 99.88 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 100.19 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | 100.22 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 100.28 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 100.20 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 100.20 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 100.25 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 100.39 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 100.46 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | 100.29 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 100.23 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 100.21 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 100.05 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 100.30 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 100.52 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 100.71 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | 100.25 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | 100.09 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 100.15 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 100.19 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 100.38 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 100.43 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 100.35 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | 100.35 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 100.26 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 100.37 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 100.46 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 100.42 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 100.37 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 100.20 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | 100.12 |
| Jul 11, 2026 | 100.08 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 100.07 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 100.11 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 99.89 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 99.38 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 99.48 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | 99.85 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | 99.84 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 99.83 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 99.89 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 99.63 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 99.48 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 99.42 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | 99.45 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 100.32 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 100.56 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 100.50 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 99.31 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 99.19 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 99.26 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | 99.02 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | 99.05 |
| Jun 19, 2026 | 98.96 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 99.11 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 99.12 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 99.23 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 99.14 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 99.12 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | 98.91 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 98.95 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 98.86 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 98.82 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 98.80 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 98.68 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | 98.85 |
| Jun 6, 2026 | 98.86 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 99.12 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 99.19 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 99.13 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 99.09 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 98.99 |