US Politics · HOUBGR

RED Battleground House Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.

104.15

+0.2 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.2 pts

7D change

Markets

79

Implied probability

54.2%

RED Battleground House Index is at 104.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 54.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

104.4104.3104.1104.0Jul 23Jul 24Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 104.09104.27

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-02?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?

    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-06?

    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?

    Level
    29.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-11?

    Level
    54.54
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-01?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-15?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?

    Level
    18.67
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-09?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSENC1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?

    Level
    51.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA8-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?

    Level
    43.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?

    Level
    62.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ6-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?

    Level
    21.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-10?

    Level
    40.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-02?

    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA17-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?

    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-08?

    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-11?

    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-09?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ2-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?

    Level
    69.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NV-02?

    Level
    80.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-16?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI7-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?

    Level
    34.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-08?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-11?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENV1-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-12?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-13?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?

    Level
    70.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-04?

    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-09?

    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ1-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?

    Level
    32.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-05?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-06?

    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-13?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-03?

    Level
    1.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-12?

    Level
    86.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-01?

    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-12?

    Level
    1.67
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-06?

    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-03?

    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-14?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI4-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?

    Level
    69.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for PA-02?

    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-14?

    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-03?

    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-07?

    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-05?

    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-05?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-10?

    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-08?

    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI3-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?

    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-05?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-09?

    Level
    80.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-04?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-02?

    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-10?

    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-07?

    Level
    80.40
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-06?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-13?

    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI3-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for WI-3?

    Level
    34.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-07?

    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for GA-14?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NC-04?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-04?

    Level
    6.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI8-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?

    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-09?

    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-12?

    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-13?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-06?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for MI-11?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08?

    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-05?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-07?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for AZ-03?

    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-04?

    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for WI-02?

    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSENV3-26-R

    Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?

    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV4-26-R

    Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?

    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

79 markets

0–10%
24 · 30.4%
10–20%
5 · 6.3%
20–30%
3 · 3.8%
30–40%
4 · 5.1%
40–50%
3 · 3.8%
50–60%
0 · 0.0%
60–70%
4 · 5.1%
70–80%
1 · 1.3%
80–90%
11 · 13.9%
90–100%
24 · 30.4%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 2026104.09
Jul 24, 2026104.16
Jul 23, 2026104.27