US Politics · HOUBGR
RED Battleground House Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.
104.15
+0.2 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.2 pts
7D change
—
Markets
79
Implied probability
54.2%
RED Battleground House Index is at 104.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 54.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-02?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-06?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
HOUSEPA7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?
- Level
- 29.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP
Will Republican win the House race for NC-11?
- Level
- 54.54
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-01?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-15?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEPA10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?
- Level
- 18.67
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-09?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSENC1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?
- Level
- 51.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEPA8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?
- Level
- 43.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEPA1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?
- Level
- 62.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEAZ6-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?
- Level
- 21.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
HOUSEMI10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-10?
- Level
- 40.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-02?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEPA17-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-08?
- Level
- 86.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-11?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-09?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEAZ2-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?
- Level
- 69.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NV-02?
- Level
- 80.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-16?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEMI7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?
- Level
- 34.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-08?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-11?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSENV1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-12?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-13?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSEWI1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?
- Level
- 70.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-04?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-09?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEAZ1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?
- Level
- 32.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-05?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-06?
- Level
- 86.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-13?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-03?
- Level
- 1.50
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-12?
- Level
- 86.50
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-01?
- Level
- 90.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-12?
- Level
- 1.67
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-06?
- Level
- 1.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-03?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-14?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEMI4-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?
- Level
- 69.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-02?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-14?
- Level
- 84.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-03?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-07?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-05?
- Level
- 1.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-05?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-10?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-08?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEMI3-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-05?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-09?
- Level
- 80.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-04?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-02?
- Level
- 3.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-10?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-07?
- Level
- 80.40
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-06?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-13?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEWI3-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for WI-3?
- Level
- 34.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-07?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-14?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-04?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-04?
- Level
- 6.50
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
HOUSEMI8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-09?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-12?
- Level
- 4.50
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-13?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-06?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-11?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08?
- Level
- 86.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-05?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-07?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-03?
- Level
- 1.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-04?
- Level
- 2.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-02?
- Level
- 2.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
HOUSENV3-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?
- Level
- 14.00
- Weight
- 0.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSENV4-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 0.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
79 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 104.09 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 104.16 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 104.27 |