US Politics · HOUBGR

RED Battleground House Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.

112.37

+1.8 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+1.8 pts

7D change

+0.4 pts

Markets

Implied probability

62.4%

RED Battleground House Index is at 112.4 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 62.4% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

Updated Sep 10, 2026, 1:24 AM UTCRange 103.57–112.37

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

HOUSEPA7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?
Down
Level
18.00
Weight
2.3%
30D
-9.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSENC1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?
Down
Level
43.00
Weight
1.8%
30D
-3.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEPA1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?
Flat
Level
57.00
Weight
1.6%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP
Will Republican win the House race for NC-11?
Down
Level
36.00
Weight
1.5%
30D
-9.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEPA10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?
Up
Level
25.00
Weight
1.5%
30D
+4.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-15?
Up
Level
97.00
Weight
1.5%
30D
+4.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEPA8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?
Down
Level
35.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
-2.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEMI7-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?
Up
Level
46.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+14.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEAZ1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?
Up
Level
30.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+4.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
HOUSEPA17-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?
Down
Level
4.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-02?
Up
Level
2.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-11?
Up
Level
98.67
Weight
1.4%
30D
+6.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-09?
Down
Level
96.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-06?
Up
Level
0.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-16?
Flat
Level
92.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-01?
Up
Level
91.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+2.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-09?
Up
Level
98.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
+1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-12?
Level
2.00
Weight
1.4%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-05?
Level
1.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEMI10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-10?
Up
Level
38.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+10.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-04?
Down
Level
4.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-13?
Up
Level
98.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+3.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-14?
Up
Level
97.50
Weight
1.3%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-03?
Level
0.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-12?
Up
Level
88.60
Weight
1.3%
30D
+2.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-11?
Down
Level
96.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for PA-02?
Level
3.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-01?
Up
Level
90.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+2.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-09?
Up
Level
75.25
Weight
1.3%
30D
+0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-02?
Down
Level
97.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-2.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-07?
Up
Level
96.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+3.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-08?
Up
Level
95.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-09?
Down
Level
97.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?
Up
Level
92.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+4.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-13?
Level
4.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-14?
Down
Level
91.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-05?
Up
Level
90.50
Weight
1.3%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-03?
Down
Level
98.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
-1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-06?
Up
Level
91.00
Weight
1.3%
30D
+3.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-07?
Up
Level
86.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-12?
Level
4.33
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-06?
Down
Level
92.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-1.3 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-03?
Down
Level
88.50
Weight
1.2%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-08?
Up
Level
93.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-13?
Down
Level
87.67
Weight
1.2%
30D
-2.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEAZ6-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?
Down
Level
20.33
Weight
1.2%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-10?
Down
Level
95.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-05?
Level
4.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSEMI4-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?
Down
Level
55.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-8.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-14?
Up
Level
98.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-10?
Down
Level
97.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-04?
Level
5.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-02?
Up
Level
2.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for GA-06?
Level
0.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSEMI3-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?
Down
Level
6.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-05?
Up
Level
95.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NC-04?
Level
4.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEWI3-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for WI-3?
Down
Level
29.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-4.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-11?
Flat
Level
3.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-08?
Up
Level
89.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+2.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-13?
Level
0.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEMI8-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?
Down
Level
9.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-12?
Level
0.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for MI-06?
Level
4.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEAZ2-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?
Up
Level
72.00
Weight
1.2%
30D
+5.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
HOUSEWI1-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?
Down
Level
67.00
Weight
1.1%
30D
-3.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-04?
Flat
Level
9.00
Weight
1.1%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-09?
Up
Level
97.00
Weight
1.1%
30D
+1.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08?
Down
Level
90.00
Weight
1.1%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-07?
Up
Level
95.00
Weight
1.1%
30D
+3.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-05?
Flat
Level
98.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-07?
Level
7.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-03?
Level
1.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-02?
Level
1.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
—
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for WI-04?
Flat
Level
1.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
+0.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NV-02?
Down
Level
76.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
-3.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSENV1-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?
Down
Level
9.00
Weight
1.0%
30D
-1.0 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSENV4-26-R
Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?
Down
Level
7.00
Weight
0.9%
30D
-0.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSENV3-26-R
Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?
Down
Level
12.00
Weight
0.9%
30D
-2.5 pts
Expires
Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi

Ticker	Market	Level	Weight	30D
HOUSEPA7-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-7? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $58.3K · Open interest $48.3K	18.00	2.3%	-9.5 pts
HOUSENC1-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-1? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $34.9K · Open interest $30K	43.00	1.8%	-3.5 pts
HOUSEPA1-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-1? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $15.9K · Open interest $12K	57.00	1.6%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-11? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $18.7K · Open interest $7.3K	36.00	1.5%	-9.0 pts
HOUSEPA10-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-10? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $9K · Open interest $3.8K	25.00	1.5%	+4.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-15? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $8.6K · Open interest $8.2K	97.00	1.5%	+4.5 pts
HOUSEPA8-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-8? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $7.2K · Open interest $5.7K	35.00	1.4%	-2.0 pts
HOUSEMI7-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-7? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $15.8K · Open interest $10K	46.00	1.4%	+14.0 pts
HOUSEAZ1-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $23.3K · Open interest $18.8K	30.00	1.4%	+4.0 pts
HOUSEPA17-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-17? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $5.4K · Open interest $2.5K	4.00	1.4%	-1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $12K · Open interest $4.1K	2.00	1.4%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-11? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.8K · Open interest $2.5K	98.67	1.4%	+6.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-09? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $10.3K · Open interest $5.5K	96.00	1.4%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-06? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.4K · Open interest $3.1K	0.00	1.4%	+0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-16? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.8K · Open interest $2.2K	92.00	1.4%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-01? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $10.6K · Open interest $1.9K	91.00	1.4%	+2.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-09? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.7K · Open interest $597.3	98.00	1.4%	+1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-12? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.6K · Open interest $1K	2.00	1.4%	—
KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.2K · Open interest $805	1.00	1.3%	—
HOUSEMI10-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-10? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $10K · Open interest $2.9K	38.00	1.3%	+10.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-04? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $841.9 · Open interest $644.9	4.00	1.3%	-1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-13? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $519.9 · Open interest $280.9	98.00	1.3%	+3.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-14? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $426.6 · Open interest $418.6	97.50	1.3%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-03? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $306.7 · Open interest $286.4	0.00	1.3%	—
KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-12? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $6.7K · Open interest $5.4K	88.60	1.3%	+2.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-11? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $6.6K · Open interest $2.7K	96.00	1.3%	-1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-R kalshi · PA	Will Republican win the House race for PA-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2 · Open interest $2	3.00	1.3%	—
KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-01? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $4.9K · Open interest $3.4K	90.00	1.3%	+2.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-09? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $4.6K · Open interest $3K	75.25	1.3%	+0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $6.2K · Open interest $2.8K	97.00	1.3%	-2.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-07? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.9K · Open interest $2.8K	96.00	1.3%	+3.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-08? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.7K · Open interest $1.7K	95.00	1.3%	+1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-09? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $5.1K · Open interest $1.1K	97.00	1.3%	-1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $13.8K · Open interest $2.2K	92.00	1.3%	+4.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-13? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.8K · Open interest $1.4K	4.00	1.3%	—
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-14? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.7K · Open interest $1.1K	91.00	1.3%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.6K · Open interest $2.5K	90.50	1.3%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-03? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.5K · Open interest $1K	98.00	1.3%	-1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-06? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.5K · Open interest $461	91.00	1.3%	+3.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-07? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.3K · Open interest $1.7K	86.00	1.2%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-12? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.2K · Open interest $1.2K	4.33	1.2%	—
KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-06? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $15K · Open interest $13.5K	92.00	1.2%	-1.3 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-03? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.6K · Open interest $1.1K	88.50	1.2%	-1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-08? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.6K · Open interest $1.4K	93.00	1.2%	+0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-13? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.6K · Open interest $1.5K	87.67	1.2%	-2.0 pts
HOUSEAZ6-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $12.4K · Open interest $6.1K	20.33	1.2%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-10? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.4K · Open interest $1.1K	95.00	1.2%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.3K · Open interest $802	4.00	1.2%	—
HOUSEMI4-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-4? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.4K · Open interest $1.4K	55.00	1.2%	-8.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-14? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.2K · Open interest $1K	98.00	1.2%	+1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-10? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.1K · Open interest $554	97.00	1.2%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-04? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $863 · Open interest $718	5.00	1.2%	—
KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $854.7 · Open interest $671.3	2.00	1.2%	+0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-R kalshi · GA	Will Republican win the House race for GA-06? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $809 · Open interest $321	0.00	1.2%	—
HOUSEMI3-26-R kalshi · MI	Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.5K · Open interest $1.6K	6.00	1.2%	-1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.5K · Open interest $1.2K	95.00	1.2%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-R kalshi · NC	Will Republican win the House race for NC-04? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $268 · Open interest $248	4.00	1.2%	—
HOUSEWI3-26-R kalshi · WI	Will a Republican win the House race for WI-3? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $12.7K · Open interest $8.9K	29.00	1.2%	-4.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-11? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $1.2K · Open interest $851.8	3.00	1.2%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-08? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $11.8K · Open interest $2.5K	89.00	1.2%	+2.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-13? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $714.7 · Open interest $713.7	0.00	1.2%	—
HOUSEMI8-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-8? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $560.5 · Open interest $371.5	9.00	1.2%	-0.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-12? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $377 · Open interest $377	0.00	1.2%	—
KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-R kalshi · MI	Will Republican win the House race for MI-06? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $109 · Open interest $109	4.00	1.2%	—
HOUSEAZ2-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $7.7K · Open interest $2.3K	72.00	1.2%	+5.5 pts
HOUSEWI1-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-1? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $7.9K · Open interest $5.1K	67.00	1.1%	-3.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-04? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.4K · Open interest $1.8K	9.00	1.1%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-09? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.7K · Open interest $2.1K	97.00	1.1%	+1.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-08? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.3K · Open interest $1.7K	90.00	1.1%	-1.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-07? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $4K · Open interest $2.6K	95.00	1.1%	+3.5 pts
KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-05? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.2K · Open interest $2.4K	98.00	1.0%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-07? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $438 · Open interest $438	7.00	1.0%	—
KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-R kalshi · AZ	Will Republican win the House race for AZ-03? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $71 · Open interest $69	1.00	1.0%	—
KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $976 · Open interest $752	1.00	1.0%	—
KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-R kalshi · WI	Will Republican win the House race for WI-04? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $641 · Open interest $451	1.00	1.0%	+0.0 pts
KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-R kalshi · NV	Will Republican win the House race for NV-02? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $9K · Open interest $3K	76.00	1.0%	-3.0 pts
HOUSENV1-26-R kalshi · NV	Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $8.9K · Open interest $2.3K	9.00	1.0%	-1.0 pts
HOUSENV4-26-R kalshi · NV	Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $3.8K · Open interest $2.6K	7.00	0.9%	-0.5 pts
HOUSENV3-26-R kalshi · NV	Will Republican win the House race for NV-3? Expires Nov 3, 2027 Volume $2.7K · Open interest $1.6K	12.00	0.9%	-2.5 pts

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

79 markets

0–10%

29 · 36.7%

10–20%

2 · 2.5%

20–30%

3 · 3.8%

30–40%

3 · 3.8%

40–50%

2 · 2.5%

50–60%

2 · 2.5%

60–70%

1 · 1.3%

70–80%

3 · 3.8%

80–90%

5 · 6.3%

90–100%

29 · 36.7%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

Settlement	Value
Sep 8, 2026	110.53
Sep 7, 2026	110.48
Sep 6, 2026	110.70
Sep 5, 2026	111.58
Sep 4, 2026	111.13
Sep 3, 2026	111.90
Sep 2, 2026	111.97
Sep 1, 2026	111.89
Aug 31, 2026	109.97
Aug 30, 2026	109.07

Show 38 older daily observations

Settlement	Value
Aug 29, 2026	109.99
Aug 28, 2026	110.11
Aug 27, 2026	110.20
Aug 26, 2026	110.29
Aug 25, 2026	108.61
Aug 24, 2026	111.56
Aug 23, 2026	110.96
Aug 22, 2026	107.22
Aug 21, 2026	110.33
Aug 20, 2026	109.75
Aug 19, 2026	109.30
Aug 18, 2026	111.28
Aug 17, 2026	110.54
Aug 16, 2026	109.90
Aug 15, 2026	110.28
Aug 14, 2026	110.38
Aug 13, 2026	105.30
Aug 12, 2026	104.73
Aug 11, 2026	103.57
Aug 10, 2026	104.08
Aug 9, 2026	104.50
Aug 8, 2026	104.31
Aug 7, 2026	104.32
Aug 6, 2026	104.36
Aug 5, 2026	104.86
Aug 4, 2026	104.82
Aug 3, 2026	105.10
Aug 2, 2026	105.85
Aug 1, 2026	105.84
Jul 31, 2026	105.96
Jul 30, 2026	105.96
Jul 29, 2026	105.99
Jul 28, 2026	106.10
Jul 27, 2026	106.23
Jul 26, 2026	104.14
Jul 25, 2026	103.92
Jul 24, 2026	104.25
Jul 23, 2026	103.99