US Politics · GOVR

Gubernatorial (R)

Tracking Republican Gubernatorial races

94.75

+0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.0 pts

7D change

+0.1 pts

Markets

44

Implied probability

44.8%

Gubernatorial (R) is at 94.8 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 44.8% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

97.696.395.193.8Jun 27Jul 11Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 94.19–97.22

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • GOVPARTYCA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in California

    Down
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    7.4%
    30D
    -4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNY-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York

    Down
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    4.1%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTX-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas

    Down
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    3.9%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOH-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio

    Up
    Level
    55.50
    Weight
    3.6%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYFL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida

    Up
    Level
    80.00
    Weight
    3.5%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYGA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia

    Down
    Level
    42.00
    Weight
    3.4%
    30D
    -15.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAZ-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona

    Down
    Level
    20.00
    Weight
    3.0%
    30D
    -3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYPA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

    Up
    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    2.9%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan

    Up
    Level
    14.50
    Weight
    2.8%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa

    Up
    Level
    37.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMN-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Minnesota

    Up
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Illinois

    Down
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts

    Down
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNV-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada

    Up
    Level
    43.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOR-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon

    Up
    Level
    18.00
    Weight
    2.4%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin

    Up
    Level
    46.00
    Weight
    2.4%
    30D
    +20.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCO-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Colorado

    Down
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    2.4%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTN-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Tennessee

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMD-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland

    Flat
    Level
    7.50
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alabama

    Up
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +1.9 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSC-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Carolina

    Up
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOK-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oklahoma

    Up
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCT-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Connecticut

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +1.3 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNM-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Mexico

    Down
    Level
    13.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NM · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAR-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arkansas

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

    Down
    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNE-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nebraska

    Down
    Level
    83.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYME-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maine

    Down
    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -3.8 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYID-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Idaho

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ID · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYHI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Hawaii

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    HI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYRI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Rhode Island

    Up
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    RI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKS-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kansas

    Up
    Level
    75.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Jan 14, 2028

    KS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSD-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWY-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wyoming

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKY-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky

    Down
    Level
    83.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    KY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYLA-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Louisiana

    Up
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 12, 2028

    LA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMS-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Mississippi

    Up
    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    MS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNC-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in North Carolina

    Down
    Level
    33.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWA-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Washington

    Flat
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMO-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Missouri

    Flat
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYUT-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Utah

    Down
    Level
    86.00
    Weight
    0.7%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    UT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWV-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in West Virginia

    Flat
    Level
    89.50
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNH-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Hampshire

    Up
    Level
    82.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMT-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Montana

    Up
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MT · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

44 markets

0–10%
13 · 29.5%
10–20%
4 · 9.1%
20–30%
0 · 0.0%
30–40%
2 · 4.5%
40–50%
3 · 6.8%
50–60%
1 · 2.3%
60–70%
0 · 0.0%
70–80%
2 · 4.5%
80–90%
10 · 22.7%
90–100%
9 · 20.5%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 202694.69
Jul 24, 202694.62
Jul 23, 202694.72
Jul 22, 202694.67
Jul 21, 202694.84
Jul 20, 202694.74
Jul 19, 202694.66
Jul 18, 202694.61
Jul 17, 202694.57
Jul 16, 202694.68
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Jul 15, 202694.51
Jul 14, 202694.33
Jul 13, 202694.33
Jul 12, 202694.35
Jul 11, 202694.31
Jul 10, 202694.21
Jul 9, 202694.19
Jul 8, 202695.42
Jul 7, 202696.92
Jul 6, 202696.82
Jul 5, 202697.01
Jul 4, 202697.08
Jul 3, 202696.93
Jul 2, 202697.07
Jul 1, 202697.17
Jun 30, 202697.22
Jun 29, 202697.12
Jun 28, 202696.96
Jun 27, 202697.03
Jun 26, 202696.95
Jun 25, 202696.84
Jun 24, 202696.97
Jun 23, 202696.86
Jun 22, 202696.79
Jun 21, 202696.77
Jun 20, 202696.77
Jun 19, 202696.64
Jun 18, 202696.70
Jun 17, 202696.69
Jun 16, 202696.46
Jun 15, 202696.28
Jun 14, 202696.24
Jun 13, 202696.24
Jun 12, 202696.25
Jun 11, 202696.24
Jun 10, 202695.99
Jun 9, 202695.97
Jun 8, 202696.08
Jun 7, 202696.10
Jun 6, 202696.18
Jun 5, 202696.01
Jun 4, 202695.87
Jun 3, 202695.85
Jun 2, 202695.92
Jun 1, 202696.34
May 31, 202696.24
May 30, 202696.27
May 29, 202696.33
May 28, 202695.66
May 27, 202695.82
May 26, 202695.97
May 25, 202695.61
May 24, 202695.16
May 23, 202695.78
May 22, 202696.38
May 21, 202697.19
May 20, 202697.24
May 19, 202697.24
May 18, 202697.25
May 17, 202697.13
May 16, 202697.15
May 15, 202697.05
May 14, 202697.00
May 13, 202697.02
May 12, 202696.95
May 11, 202696.91
May 10, 202696.80
May 9, 202696.73
May 8, 202696.64
May 7, 202696.60
May 6, 202696.52
May 5, 202696.49
May 4, 202696.60
May 3, 202696.72
May 2, 202696.60
May 1, 202696.55
Apr 30, 202696.40
Apr 29, 202696.46
Apr 28, 202696.27
Apr 27, 202696.12
Apr 26, 202696.10
Apr 25, 202696.08
Apr 24, 202696.13
Apr 23, 202696.08
Apr 22, 202696.26
Apr 21, 202696.23
Apr 20, 202696.28
Apr 19, 202696.37
Apr 18, 202696.40
Apr 17, 202696.33