US Politics · GOVR

Gubernatorial (R)

Tracking Republican Gubernatorial races

93.53

-0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.0 pts

7D change

+0.1 pts

Markets

49

Implied probability

43.5%

Gubernatorial (R) is at 93.5 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 43.5% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

95.794.893.993.0Aug 11Aug 25Sep 9

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Sep 9, 2026, 4:44 PM UTCRange 93.24–95.46

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • GOVPARTYCA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in California

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    6.3%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNY-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York

    Up
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    5.2%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOH-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio

    Down
    Level
    47.00
    Weight
    4.4%
    30D
    -4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYFL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida

    Flat
    Level
    82.00
    Weight
    4.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    FL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTX-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas

    Down
    Level
    82.67
    Weight
    3.6%
    30D
    -5.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TX · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYPA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin

    Down
    Level
    20.00
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    -42.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYGA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia

    Flat
    Level
    43.89
    Weight
    3.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAZ-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona

    Flat
    Level
    15.00
    Weight
    2.7%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa

    Down
    Level
    22.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -14.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMA-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts

    Down
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    2.6%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan

    Down
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    -6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNV-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada

    Up
    Level
    62.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +16.8 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMN-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Minnesota

    Up
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.5%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Illinois

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    IL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOR-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCO-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Colorado

    Flat
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    2.1%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYTN-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Tennessee

    Flat
    Level
    97.33
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    TN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMD-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland

    Up
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAL-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alabama

    Down
    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AL · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSC-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Carolina

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +4.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYOK-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oklahoma

    Down
    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    -4.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    OK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYCT-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Connecticut

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    —
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    CT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNM-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Mexico

    Down
    Level
    8.50
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NM · kalshi

  • KXGOVPARTYAK-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alaska

    Flat
    Level
    35.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AK · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNE-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nebraska

    Up
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +7.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

    Down
    Level
    90.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    VT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYAR-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arkansas

    Down
    Level
    100.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AR · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYME-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maine

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ME · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKS-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kansas

    Down
    Level
    68.25
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    -10.5 pts
    Expires
    Jan 14, 2028

    KS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYID-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Idaho

    Flat
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    ID · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYHI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Hawaii

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    HI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYRI-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Rhode Island

    Down
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    RI · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYSD-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota

    Down
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    SD · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWY-26-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wyoming

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYKY-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky

    Up
    Level
    79.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    KY · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYLA-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Louisiana

    Flat
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 12, 2028

    LA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMS-27-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Mississippi

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 1, 2028

    MS · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNC-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in North Carolina

    Down
    Level
    32.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NC · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWA-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Washington

    Flat
    Level
    1.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WA · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYIN-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Indiana

    Flat
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    IN · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMO-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Missouri

    Up
    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    0.8%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MO · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYUT-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Utah

    Up
    Level
    84.00
    Weight
    0.7%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    UT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYNH-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Hampshire

    Up
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    NH · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYWV-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in West Virginia

    Down
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    0.6%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    WV · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYMT-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Montana

    Flat
    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    0.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    MT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYDE-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Delaware

    Flat
    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    0.5%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    DE · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYVT-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

    Down
    Level
    52.00
    Weight
    0.5%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    VT · kalshi

  • GOVPARTYND-28-R

    Will the Republican party win the governorship in North Dakota

    Down
    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    0.5%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    ND · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

49 markets

0–10%
14 · 28.6%
10–20%
5 · 10.2%
20–30%
1 · 2.0%
30–40%
2 · 4.1%
40–50%
2 · 4.1%
50–60%
1 · 2.0%
60–70%
2 · 4.1%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
10 · 20.4%
90–100%
12 · 24.5%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Sep 8, 202693.53
Sep 7, 202693.50
Sep 6, 202693.27
Sep 5, 202693.47
Sep 4, 202693.30
Sep 3, 202693.24
Sep 2, 202693.38
Sep 1, 202693.47
Aug 31, 202693.61
Aug 30, 202693.73
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Aug 29, 202693.45
Aug 28, 202693.52
Aug 27, 202693.50
Aug 26, 202693.50
Aug 25, 202693.56
Aug 24, 202693.66
Aug 23, 202693.69
Aug 22, 202693.96
Aug 21, 202694.17
Aug 20, 202694.46
Aug 19, 202695.13
Aug 18, 202694.23
Aug 17, 202695.20
Aug 16, 202695.39
Aug 15, 202695.34
Aug 14, 202695.46
Aug 13, 202694.41
Aug 12, 202694.42
Aug 11, 202694.73
Aug 10, 202694.99
Aug 9, 202694.75
Aug 8, 202694.86
Aug 7, 202694.77
Aug 6, 202694.71
Aug 5, 202695.31
Aug 4, 202695.08
Aug 3, 202694.77
Aug 2, 202694.81
Aug 1, 202694.65
Jul 31, 202694.58
Jul 30, 202694.61
Jul 29, 202694.90
Jul 28, 202694.81
Jul 27, 202694.99
Jul 26, 202694.83
Jul 25, 202694.71
Jul 24, 202694.62
Jul 23, 202694.65
Jul 22, 202694.66
Jul 21, 202694.66
Jul 20, 202694.88
Jul 19, 202694.67
Jul 18, 202694.66
Jul 17, 202694.51
Jul 16, 202694.54
Jul 15, 202694.71
Jul 14, 202694.37
Jul 13, 202694.29
Jul 12, 202694.43
Jul 11, 202694.36
Jul 10, 202694.19
Jul 9, 202694.22
Jul 8, 202694.13
Jul 7, 202696.96
Jul 6, 202696.58
Jul 5, 202696.86
Jul 4, 202696.96
Jul 3, 202697.13
Jul 2, 202697.04
Jul 1, 202697.21
Jun 30, 202697.21
Jun 29, 202697.30
Jun 28, 202697.00
Jun 27, 202696.89
Jun 26, 202697.09
Jun 25, 202696.81
Jun 24, 202696.92
Jun 23, 202696.92
Jun 22, 202696.81
Jun 21, 202696.76
Jun 20, 202696.75
Jun 19, 202696.75
Jun 18, 202696.70
Jun 17, 202696.54
Jun 16, 202696.70
Jun 15, 202696.29
Jun 14, 202696.36
Jun 13, 202696.22
Jun 12, 202696.24
Jun 11, 202696.29
Jun 10, 202696.19
Jun 9, 202695.95
Jun 8, 202695.98
Jun 7, 202696.04
Jun 6, 202696.04
Jun 5, 202696.16
Jun 4, 202695.93
Jun 3, 202695.68
Jun 2, 202695.78
Jun 1, 202696.22