US Politics · BLUBTL
BLUE Battleground Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic political advantage across U.S. battleground states.
117.82
+0.1 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.1 pts
7D change
—
Sub-indices
4
Implied probability
67.8%
BLUE Battleground Index is at 117.8 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 67.8% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
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Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 117.61–117.87
Constituents
No constituent data is currently available.
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
95 markets
0–10%
22 · 23.2%
10–20%
13 · 13.7%
20–30%
1 · 1.1%
30–40%
3 · 3.2%
40–50%
1 · 1.1%
50–60%
6 · 6.3%
60–70%
8 · 8.4%
70–80%
6 · 6.3%
80–90%
5 · 5.3%
90–100%
30 · 31.6%
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 117.77 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 117.87 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 117.61 |