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  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
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    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
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    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
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  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · BLUBTL

BLUE Battleground Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic political advantage across U.S. battleground states.

119.96

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

—

7D change

—

Sub-indices

4

Implied probability

70.0%

BLUE Battleground Index is at 120.0 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 70.0% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

120.4119.6118.7117.8Sep 25Oct 9Oct 25

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 1:24 AM UTCRange 118.09–120.18

Constituents

No constituent data is currently available.

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 23, 2026120.16
Oct 22, 2026120.18
Oct 21, 2026119.66
Oct 20, 2026118.88
Oct 19, 2026118.49
Oct 18, 2026118.37
Oct 17, 2026118.55
Oct 16, 2026118.30
Oct 15, 2026118.32
Oct 14, 2026118.26
Show 21 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 13, 2026118.26
Oct 12, 2026118.44
Oct 11, 2026118.34
Oct 10, 2026118.09
Oct 9, 2026118.55
Oct 8, 2026118.58
Oct 7, 2026118.91
Oct 6, 2026118.99
Oct 5, 2026118.97
Oct 4, 2026118.29
Oct 3, 2026118.46
Oct 2, 2026118.49
Oct 1, 2026118.34
Sep 30, 2026118.51
Sep 29, 2026118.56
Sep 28, 2026118.33
Sep 27, 2026118.36
Sep 26, 2026118.50
Sep 25, 2026118.74
Sep 24, 2026118.69
Sep 23, 2026118.75

About this index

How BLUE Battleground Index is calculated

Adjacent combines the Presidential, Senate, House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral party sub-indices using fixed weights, then applies a trailing one-hour average to the published composite.

Structure
Composite
Coverage
All offices
Methodology
battleground
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Index structure

Five office sub-indices

Calculated with Adjacent UPFI methodology

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
—
1W
—
1M
—
3M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—