Vistadex logo
DiscoverMy Bets
Vistadex logo

Explore

DiscoverPeopleIdeasClaim MarketsIndices

Resources

AboutBlogDocsTerms of Service

© 2026 Capitola Labs

DiscoverMy Bets
  • All (18)
  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
    • Presidential (R)
    • Presidential (D)
    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
    • House (D)
    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
  • Sports (28)
  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · MSRY

Misery Implied Index

Market-implied seasonally adjusted U-3 plus headline CPI-U year-over-year, in percentage points.

8.14

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

—

7D change

—

Markets

0

Implied probability

0.0%

Misery Implied Index is at 8.1 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 0.0% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

8.38.28.07.9Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:47 PM UTCRange 8.05–8.14

Constituents

No constituent data is currently available.

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 13, 20268.14
Oct 12, 20268.12
Oct 11, 20268.07
Oct 10, 20268.06
Oct 9, 20268.05

About this index

How Misery Implied Index is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
All offices
Methodology
implied_level
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Market basket

0 tracked markets

Calculated with Adjacent UPFI methodology

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
—
1W
—
1M
—
3M
—
YTD
—
1Y
—