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Ideas

AGI before 2028?

By Jan 1, 2028

Profile pictureDemis Hassabis55%Yes

OpenAI IPO?

By Jul 1, 2027

Profile pictureSam Altman34.5%Yes

AI downturn?

By Jan 1, 2027

Profile pictureYann LeCun6.25%Yes

AI labs agree to slow down?

By Jan 1, 2027

Profile pictureSam Altman25%Yes

Government control of AI?

By Jan 1, 2030

Profile pictureLeopold Aschenbrenner37%Yes

All ideas

IdeaPeoplePrice
AI bubble burst in 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+136.25%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+44.3%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+462.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+30.15%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+324.5%
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+386%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+32.7%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+390.5%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+388.5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+39.5%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture+336.5%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Profile pictureProfile picture+213.5%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Profile pictureProfile picture+214.5%
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?Profile pictureProfile picture+268%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Profile pictureProfile picture+26%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Profile pictureProfile picture+217.75%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?Profile pictureProfile picture+210%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?Profile pictureProfile picture+255%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Profile pictureProfile picture+26.5%
Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?Profile pictureProfile picture+226.1%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?Profile pictureProfile picture+237.5%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?Profile pictureProfile picture+291.5%
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?Profile pictureProfile picture+261%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Profile pictureProfile picture+22.55%