US Politics · HOUBGD
BLUE Battleground House Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.
99.24
+0.1 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.1 pts
7D change
—
Markets
79
Implied probability
49.2%
BLUE Battleground House Index is at 99.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 49.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.
Constituents
Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.
KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-06?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
HOUSEPA7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?
- Level
- 74.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.8%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?
- Level
- 49.50
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSENC1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?
- Level
- 50.00
- Weight
- 1.7%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEPA17-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEPA10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?
- Level
- 82.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEPA1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?
- Level
- 42.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
HOUSEMI10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?
- Level
- 60.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEPA8-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?
- Level
- 65.00
- Weight
- 1.6%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-14?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-02?
- Level
- 97.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-11?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSEMI7-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?
- Level
- 52.67
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-01?
- Level
- 11.50
- Weight
- 1.5%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-16?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-06?
- Level
- 13.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-06?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-13?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.4%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-07?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-07?
- Level
- 13.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEMI4-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?
- Level
- 37.67
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEAZ1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?
- Level
- 73.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-04?
- Level
- 94.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12?
- Level
- 14.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-11?
- Level
- 8.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-08?
- Level
- 10.75
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-04?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
HOUSEMI3-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?
- Level
- 90.50
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
HOUSEAZ6-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?
- Level
- 83.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-12?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-09?
- Level
- 17.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEWI3-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?
- Level
- 66.50
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-01?
- Level
- 13.50
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
HOUSEWI1-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?
- Level
- 37.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-13?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.3%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-14?
- Level
- 13.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-06?
- Level
- 91.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-15?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-03?
- Level
- 99.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14?
- Level
- 5.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-09?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-08?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-05?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-02?
- Level
- 99.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
PA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-02?
- Level
- 2.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-13?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEMI8-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?
- Level
- 88.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-08?
- Level
- 14.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-05?
- Level
- 10.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-10?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-09?
- Level
- 4.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-10?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.2%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-12?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-03?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-04?
- Level
- 98.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-05?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
HOUSEAZ2-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?
- Level
- 30.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05?
- Level
- 12.50
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NV-02?
- Level
- 22.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for GA-05?
- Level
- 99.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
GA · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-09?
- Level
- 7.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-04?
- Level
- 99.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NC · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-06?
- Level
- 92.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-11?
- Level
- 96.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?
- Level
- 98.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for MI-12?
- Level
- 98.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
MI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-07?
- Level
- 9.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
HOUSENV3-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 1.1%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
HOUSENV1-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?
- Level
- 89.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-05?
- Level
- 11.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-09?
- Level
- 6.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-08?
- Level
- 16.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-03?
- Level
- 93.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-07?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 1.0%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
AZ · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-04?
- Level
- 98.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-D
Will Democratic win the House race for WI-02?
- Level
- 95.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
WI · kalshi
HOUSENV4-26-D
Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?
- Level
- 87.00
- Weight
- 0.9%
- 30D
- —
- Expires
- Nov 3, 2027
NV · kalshi
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
79 markets
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 99.23 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 99.36 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 99.41 |