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  • All (18)
  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
    • Presidential (R)
    • Presidential (D)
    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
    • House (D)
    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
  • Sports (28)
  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · HOUBGD

BLUE Battleground House Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.

102.94

-0.5 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

-0.5 pts

7D change

+1.7 pts

Markets

79

Implied probability

52.9%

BLUE Battleground House Index is at 102.9 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 52.9% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

103.9102.5101.199.6Sep 25Oct 9Oct 25

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 1:24 AM UTCRange 100.04–103.45

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • HOUSEPA7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?

    Up
    Level
    87.50
    Weight
    2.3%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?

    Up
    Level
    40.00
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSENC1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?

    Up
    Level
    80.50
    Weight
    2.2%
    30D
    +19.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?

    Up
    Level
    84.50
    Weight
    2.0%
    30D
    +21.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-09?

    Up
    Level
    28.50
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-12?

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?

    Up
    Level
    80.50
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +12.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?

    Up
    Level
    73.50
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +13.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI3-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?

    Up
    Level
    77.50
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    +5.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ2-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?

    Down
    Level
    33.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?

    Up
    Level
    82.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03?

    Up
    Level
    28.50
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    +5.9 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-16?

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    -8.2 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA17-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?

    Down
    Level
    93.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI4-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?

    Up
    Level
    61.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +14.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-15?

    Down
    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -0.8 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-11?

    Up
    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-06?

    Up
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-09?

    Down
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14?

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-04?

    Up
    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-13?

    Up
    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-05?

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-03?

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-02?

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12?

    Up
    Level
    16.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +7.2 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-07?

    Up
    Level
    20.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-07?

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +5.6 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-14?

    Down
    Level
    3.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    -2.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-11?

    Up
    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?

    Up
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    +3.3 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-06?

    Up
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-01?

    Up
    Level
    12.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-06?

    Up
    Level
    9.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-02?

    Up
    Level
    98.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-13?

    Up
    Level
    20.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +8.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-08?

    Up
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.8 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-13?

    Up
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +2.7 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?

    Up
    Level
    72.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-14?

    Up
    Level
    10.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-01?

    Up
    Level
    10.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +3.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-03?

    Up
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-08?

    Down
    Level
    2.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -2.3 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-10?

    Down
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-05?

    Down
    Level
    12.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -2.6 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-10?

    Up
    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?

    Up
    Level
    44.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +12.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?

    Up
    Level
    81.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +6.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-09?

    Down
    Level
    3.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-04?

    Down
    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-12?

    Up
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-05?

    Up
    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-04?

    Up
    Level
    98.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +3.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-05?

    Up
    Level
    98.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.9 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI3-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?

    Up
    Level
    93.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?

    Down
    Level
    94.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-02?

    Down
    Level
    1.67
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -0.7 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-09?

    Down
    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-11?

    Up
    Level
    96.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-06?

    Up
    Level
    95.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?

    Up
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-12?

    Flat
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ6-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?

    Up
    Level
    89.50
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    +7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NV-02?

    Up
    Level
    38.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +14.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-06?

    Up
    Level
    9.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +5.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05?

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-04?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-08?

    Down
    Level
    10.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -7.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-08?

    Up
    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-09?

    Down
    Level
    4.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -1.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-03?

    Flat
    Level
    98.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-07?

    Up
    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +17.3 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-07?

    Up
    Level
    5.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-05?

    Down
    Level
    2.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -2.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-04?

    Flat
    Level
    96.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    +0.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-02?

    Down
    Level
    97.50
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    -0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSENV3-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?

    Up
    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV4-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +0.5 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?

    Up
    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    +1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

TickerMarketLevelWeight30D

HOUSEPA7-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $240.8K · Open interest $77.9K

87.502.3%+5.0 pts

HOUSEPA1-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $215K · Open interest $193.4K

40.002.2%+1.5 pts

HOUSENC1-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $242K · Open interest $156.3K

80.502.2%+19.0 pts

KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $191.1K · Open interest $134.1K

84.502.0%+21.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-09?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $91.7K · Open interest $58.1K

28.501.6%+6.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-12?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $60.2K · Open interest $56.7K

98.001.6%+2.5 pts

HOUSEPA8-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $56.6K · Open interest $46.1K

80.501.5%+12.0 pts

HOUSEMI7-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $88.9K · Open interest $65.8K

73.501.5%+13.0 pts

HOUSEWI3-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $120.7K · Open interest $27.2K

77.501.5%+5.5 pts

HOUSEAZ2-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $97.4K · Open interest $62.1K

33.501.4%-1.5 pts

HOUSEPA10-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $24K · Open interest $19.7K

82.501.4%+2.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $37K · Open interest $29.2K

28.501.4%+5.9 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-16?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $9.3K · Open interest $4.1K

5.001.4%-8.2 pts

HOUSEPA17-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8.8K · Open interest $3K

93.501.3%-1.0 pts

HOUSEMI4-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $44.5K · Open interest $36.5K

61.501.3%+14.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-15?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $5.3K · Open interest $4.1K

4.501.3%-0.8 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-11?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $4.7K · Open interest $2.1K

4.501.3%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-06?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.8K · Open interest $2.7K

97.501.3%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-09?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.7K · Open interest $1.7K

5.001.3%-0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.9K · Open interest $1.2K

4.001.3%-1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-04?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.7K · Open interest $918.1

96.001.3%+1.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-13?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.5K · Open interest $706

5.001.3%+2.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $560.4 · Open interest $531.9

98.001.3%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-03?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $339 · Open interest $125

98.001.3%+3.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-D

kalshi · PA

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $52 · Open interest $46

98.001.3%+3.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $20.9K · Open interest $13.3K

16.501.3%+7.2 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-07?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $19.7K · Open interest $13.8K

20.501.3%+8.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-07?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $16.8K · Open interest $12.4K

11.001.3%+5.6 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-14?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $16.1K · Open interest $6.2K

3.501.3%-2.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-11?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $15.3K · Open interest $8K

4.501.3%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $13.9K · Open interest $5.7K

97.501.3%+3.3 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-06?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $9K · Open interest $4.5K

98.001.2%+1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-01?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8.7K · Open interest $6.2K

12.501.2%+6.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-06?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $7.7K · Open interest $1.7K

9.501.2%+3.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $7.3K · Open interest $654

98.501.2%+2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-13?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $7.2K · Open interest $4.9K

20.501.2%+8.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-08?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $6.1K · Open interest $3.3K

4.001.2%+0.8 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-13?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $5.8K · Open interest $1.7K

97.501.2%+2.7 pts

HOUSEMI10-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $14.9K · Open interest $8.7K

72.501.2%+7.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-14?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $4.6K · Open interest $2.3K

10.501.2%+2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-01?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $12.7K · Open interest $4.7K

10.501.2%+3.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-03?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $3K · Open interest $3K

6.001.2%+1.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-08?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.9K · Open interest $1.8K

2.501.2%-2.3 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-10?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.8K · Open interest $1.9K

3.001.2%-1.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.5K · Open interest $1.6K

12.001.2%-2.6 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-10?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $2.4K · Open interest $1.8K

6.001.2%+2.0 pts

HOUSEWI1-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $56.9K · Open interest $50.3K

44.501.2%+12.0 pts

HOUSEAZ1-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $46.6K · Open interest $22.4K

81.501.2%+6.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-09?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $890.1 · Open interest $426.1

3.001.2%-2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-04?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $744.9 · Open interest $588.2

98.001.2%-0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-12?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $558 · Open interest $269

97.501.2%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $9.6K · Open interest $7.1K

7.001.2%+1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-D

kalshi · NC

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-04?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $400 · Open interest $249

98.501.2%+3.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-D

kalshi · GA

Will Democratic win the House race for GA-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $325 · Open interest $150.5

98.501.2%+0.9 pts

HOUSEMI3-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $7.4K · Open interest $3.1K

93.501.2%+0.5 pts

HOUSEMI8-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $4.6K · Open interest $2K

94.501.2%-1.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $3.7K · Open interest $1.7K

1.671.2%-0.7 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-09?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.2K · Open interest $770.2

4.001.2%-1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-11?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.2K · Open interest $132

96.501.2%+1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-06?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1K · Open interest $988

95.501.2%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $470.3 · Open interest $413.3

97.001.2%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-D

kalshi · MI

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-12?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $343.9 · Open interest $326

97.501.2%+0.0 pts

HOUSEAZ6-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $36.7K · Open interest $31.9K

89.501.2%+7.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-D

kalshi · NV

Will Democratic win the House race for NV-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $67.9K · Open interest $50.2K

38.501.1%+14.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-06?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $25.3K · Open interest $18.1K

9.501.1%+5.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $10K · Open interest $4.6K

11.001.1%+2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-04?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $9K · Open interest $2.9K

95.001.1%+0.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-08?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $5.8K · Open interest $4.7K

10.501.0%-7.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-08?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $13.9K · Open interest $6.9K

11.001.0%+2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-09?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $1.4K · Open interest $932.9

4.501.0%-1.5 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-03?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $459.1 · Open interest $444.1

98.501.0%+0.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-D

kalshi · AZ

Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-07?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $445.2 · Open interest $429

97.001.0%+17.3 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-07?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8K · Open interest $2.2K

5.501.0%+1.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-05?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $6.3K · Open interest $2.7K

2.501.0%-2.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-04?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $465 · Open interest $424

96.501.0%+0.0 pts

KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-D

kalshi · WI

Will Democratic win the House race for WI-02?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $204 · Open interest $152

97.501.0%-0.5 pts

HOUSENV3-26-D

kalshi · NV

Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $13.1K · Open interest $7.9K

94.000.9%+1.0 pts

HOUSENV4-26-D

kalshi · NV

Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8.1K · Open interest $2.9K

95.000.9%+0.5 pts

HOUSENV1-26-D

kalshi · NV

Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?

Expires Nov 3, 2027

Volume $8.1K · Open interest $2.3K

95.000.9%+1.0 pts

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

79 markets

0–10%
22 · 27.8%
10–20%
9 · 11.4%
20–30%
4 · 5.1%
30–40%
2 · 2.5%
40–50%
2 · 2.5%
50–60%
0 · 0.0%
60–70%
1 · 1.3%
70–80%
3 · 3.8%
80–90%
7 · 8.9%
90–100%
29 · 36.7%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 23, 2026103.45
Oct 22, 2026103.03
Oct 21, 2026101.49
Oct 20, 2026101.20
Oct 19, 2026100.83
Oct 18, 2026100.86
Oct 17, 2026101.26
Oct 16, 2026101.11
Oct 15, 2026101.05
Oct 14, 2026101.02
Show 83 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 13, 2026101.12
Oct 12, 2026101.98
Oct 11, 2026102.03
Oct 10, 2026101.25
Oct 9, 2026102.40
Oct 8, 2026101.62
Oct 7, 2026101.69
Oct 6, 2026100.51
Oct 5, 2026100.53
Oct 4, 2026100.68
Oct 3, 2026100.53
Oct 2, 2026100.51
Oct 1, 2026100.52
Sep 30, 2026100.54
Sep 29, 2026100.21
Sep 28, 2026100.08
Sep 27, 2026100.13
Sep 26, 2026100.04
Sep 25, 2026100.13
Sep 24, 2026100.15
Sep 23, 202699.88
Sep 22, 202699.89
Sep 21, 202699.68
Sep 20, 202699.58
Sep 19, 202699.57
Sep 18, 202699.20
Sep 17, 202699.99
Sep 16, 2026101.32
Sep 15, 2026101.20
Sep 14, 2026100.97
Sep 13, 202699.59
Sep 12, 202699.60
Sep 11, 2026100.21
Sep 10, 202699.91
Sep 9, 2026100.51
Sep 8, 2026101.19
Sep 7, 2026101.34
Sep 6, 2026101.13
Sep 5, 2026100.03
Sep 4, 2026100.22
Sep 3, 2026100.81
Sep 2, 2026102.01
Sep 1, 2026102.22
Aug 31, 2026101.64
Aug 30, 2026101.70
Aug 29, 2026102.32
Aug 28, 2026101.61
Aug 27, 2026100.29
Aug 26, 2026100.24
Aug 25, 2026100.67
Aug 24, 2026100.65
Aug 23, 2026100.53
Aug 22, 2026100.73
Aug 21, 2026100.57
Aug 20, 2026100.42
Aug 19, 2026100.36
Aug 18, 2026100.05
Aug 17, 202699.83
Aug 16, 2026100.09
Aug 15, 2026100.24
Aug 14, 2026100.04
Aug 13, 202699.98
Aug 12, 2026100.26
Aug 11, 2026100.52
Aug 10, 202699.94
Aug 9, 202699.70
Aug 8, 202699.82
Aug 7, 202699.86
Aug 6, 202699.92
Aug 5, 202699.89
Aug 4, 2026100.08
Aug 3, 2026100.03
Aug 2, 2026100.02
Aug 1, 202699.88
Jul 31, 202699.90
Jul 30, 202699.86
Jul 29, 202699.73
Jul 28, 202699.70
Jul 27, 202699.52
Jul 26, 202699.22
Jul 25, 202699.25
Jul 24, 202699.28
Jul 23, 202699.43

About this index

How BLUE Battleground House Index is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
House
Methodology
battleground
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Largest weighted input

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?

HOUSEPA7-26-D · 2.3% weight · 87.5 level

Other leading input

Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?

HOUSEPA1-26-D · 2.2% weight · 40.0 level

Other leading input

Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?

HOUSENC1-26-D · 2.2% weight · 80.5 level

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
+0.4%
1W
+2.3%
1M
+3.6%
3M
+4.2%
YTD
—
1Y
—

Risk statistics

Volatility
9.55%
Daily volatility
0.50%
Range high
103.45
Range low
99.88
Period return
3.57%

Geographic exposure

Largest state weights across 7 covered states.

PA
24.9%

17 markets · 59.7% average probability

NC
19.3%

14 markets · 45.8% average probability

GA
17.3%

14 markets · 39.2% average probability

MI
15.9%

13 markets · 62.0% average probability

AZ
10.0%

9 markets · 57.7% average probability

WI
8.8%

8 markets · 44.2% average probability

Show all 7 states
NV
3.7%

4 markets · 78.0% average probability

Maturity schedule

Nov 3, 2027

79 markets

100.0%