US Politics · HOUBGD

BLUE Battleground House Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. House races across battleground states.

99.24

+0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.1 pts

7D change

Markets

79

Implied probability

49.2%

BLUE Battleground House Index is at 99.2 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 49.2% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

99.599.499.399.1Jul 23Jul 24Jul 26

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 99.2399.41

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-06?

    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?

    Level
    74.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.8%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?

    Level
    49.50
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSENC1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?

    Level
    50.00
    Weight
    1.7%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA17-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?

    Level
    82.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?

    Level
    42.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10?

    Level
    60.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEPA8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?

    Level
    65.00
    Weight
    1.6%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-14?

    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-02?

    Level
    97.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-11?

    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI7-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?

    Level
    52.67
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-01?

    Level
    11.50
    Weight
    1.5%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA16-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-16?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-06?

    Level
    13.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-06?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-13?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.4%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-07?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-07?

    Level
    13.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI4-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?

    Level
    37.67
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?

    Level
    73.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-04?

    Level
    94.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-12?

    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-11?

    Level
    8.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-08?

    Level
    10.75
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-04?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI3-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?

    Level
    90.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ6-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?

    Level
    83.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-12?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-09?

    Level
    17.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI3-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?

    Level
    66.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA01-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-01?

    Level
    13.50
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • HOUSEWI1-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?

    Level
    37.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-13?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.3%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-14?

    Level
    13.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-06?

    Level
    91.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA15-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-15?

    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-03?

    Level
    99.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA14-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14?

    Level
    5.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-09?

    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-08?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-05?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-PA02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for PA-02?

    Level
    99.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    PA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-02?

    Level
    2.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-13?

    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEMI8-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?

    Level
    88.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-08?

    Level
    14.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-05?

    Level
    10.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-10?

    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-09?

    Level
    4.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA10-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-10?

    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.2%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-12?

    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-03?

    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-04?

    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-05?

    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • HOUSEAZ2-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?

    Level
    30.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-05?

    Level
    12.50
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NV02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NV-02?

    Level
    22.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-GA05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for GA-05?

    Level
    99.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    GA · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-09?

    Level
    7.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-NC04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NC-04?

    Level
    99.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NC · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI06-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-06?

    Level
    92.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI11-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-11?

    Level
    96.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?

    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-MI12-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for MI-12?

    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    MI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-07?

    Level
    9.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSENV3-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?

    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    1.1%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • HOUSENV1-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?

    Level
    89.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI05-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-05?

    Level
    11.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ09-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-09?

    Level
    6.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ08-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-08?

    Level
    16.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ03-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-03?

    Level
    93.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-AZ07-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-07?

    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    1.0%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    AZ · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI04-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-04?

    Level
    98.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • KXHOUSERACE-WI02-26-D

    Will Democratic win the House race for WI-02?

    Level
    95.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    WI · kalshi

  • HOUSENV4-26-D

    Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?

    Level
    87.00
    Weight
    0.9%
    30D
    Expires
    Nov 3, 2027

    NV · kalshi

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

79 markets

0–10%
22 · 27.8%
10–20%
13 · 16.5%
20–30%
1 · 1.3%
30–40%
3 · 3.8%
40–50%
1 · 1.3%
50–60%
2 · 2.5%
60–70%
4 · 5.1%
70–80%
3 · 3.8%
80–90%
3 · 3.8%
90–100%
27 · 34.2%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 25, 202699.23
Jul 24, 202699.36
Jul 23, 202699.41