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  • All (18)
  • US Politics (18)
    • Republican Political Future Index
    • Democrat Political Future Index
    • Presidential (R)
    • Presidential (D)
    • Senate (R)
    • Senate (D)
    • House (R)
    • House (D)
    • Gubernatorial (R)
    • Gubernatorial (D)
    • Mayoral (R)
    • Mayoral (D)
    • BLUE Battleground Index
    • BLUE Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • RED Battleground Gubernatorial Index
    • BLUE Battleground House Index
    • RED Battleground House Index
    • Misery Implied Index
  • Sports (28)
  1. Indices
  2. ·
  3. US Politics

US Politics · PRESR

Presidential (R)

Tracking the Republican Presidency

90.50

+0.0 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.0 pts

7D change

+0.0 pts

Markets

1

Implied probability

40.5%

Presidential (R) is at 90.5 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 40.5% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

91.691.290.890.4Sep 26Oct 10Oct 25

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 9:38 AM UTCRange 90.50–91.50

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

  • KXPRESPARTY-2028-R

    Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

    Down
    Level
    40.50
    Weight
    100.0%
    30D
    -1.0 pts
    Expires
    Nov 7, 2029

    kalshi

TickerMarketLevelWeight30D

KXPRESPARTY-2028-R

kalshi

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

Expires Nov 7, 2029

Volume $331.7K · Open interest $160.2K

40.50100.0%-1.0 pts

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

1 market

0–10%
0 · 0.0%
10–20%
0 · 0.0%
20–30%
0 · 0.0%
30–40%
0 · 0.0%
40–50%
1 · 100.0%
50–60%
0 · 0.0%
60–70%
0 · 0.0%
70–80%
0 · 0.0%
80–90%
0 · 0.0%
90–100%
0 · 0.0%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Oct 24, 202690.50
Oct 23, 202690.50
Oct 22, 202690.50
Oct 21, 202690.50
Oct 20, 202690.50
Oct 19, 202690.50
Oct 18, 202690.50
Oct 17, 202690.50
Oct 16, 202690.50
Oct 15, 202691.50
Show 90 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Oct 14, 202691.50
Oct 13, 202691.50
Oct 12, 202691.50
Oct 11, 202691.50
Oct 10, 202691.50
Oct 9, 202691.50
Oct 8, 202691.50
Oct 7, 202691.50
Oct 6, 202691.50
Oct 5, 202691.50
Oct 4, 202691.50
Oct 3, 202691.50
Oct 2, 202691.50
Oct 1, 202691.50
Sep 30, 202691.50
Sep 29, 202691.50
Sep 28, 202691.50
Sep 27, 202691.50
Sep 26, 202691.50
Sep 25, 202691.50
Sep 24, 202691.50
Sep 23, 202691.50
Sep 22, 202691.50
Sep 21, 202691.50
Sep 20, 202691.50
Sep 19, 202691.50
Sep 18, 202691.50
Sep 17, 202691.50
Sep 16, 202691.50
Sep 15, 202691.50
Sep 14, 202691.50
Sep 13, 202691.50
Sep 12, 202691.50
Sep 11, 202691.50
Sep 10, 202691.50
Sep 9, 202691.50
Sep 8, 202691.50
Sep 7, 202691.50
Sep 6, 202691.50
Sep 5, 202691.50
Sep 4, 202691.50
Sep 3, 202691.50
Sep 2, 202691.50
Sep 1, 202691.50
Aug 31, 202691.50
Aug 30, 202691.50
Aug 29, 202691.50
Aug 28, 202691.50
Aug 27, 202691.50
Aug 26, 202691.50
Aug 25, 202691.50
Aug 24, 202691.50
Aug 23, 202691.50
Aug 22, 202691.50
Aug 21, 202691.50
Aug 20, 202691.50
Aug 19, 202691.50
Aug 18, 202691.50
Aug 17, 202691.50
Aug 16, 202691.50
Aug 15, 202691.50
Aug 14, 202691.50
Aug 13, 202691.50
Aug 12, 202691.50
Aug 11, 202691.50
Aug 10, 202691.50
Aug 9, 202691.50
Aug 8, 202691.50
Aug 7, 202691.50
Aug 6, 202691.50
Aug 5, 202691.50
Aug 4, 202691.50
Aug 3, 202691.50
Aug 2, 202691.50
Aug 1, 202691.50
Jul 31, 202691.50
Jul 30, 202691.50
Jul 29, 202691.50
Jul 28, 202691.50
Jul 27, 202691.50
Jul 26, 202691.50
Jul 25, 202691.50
Jul 24, 202691.00
Jul 23, 202691.00
Jul 22, 202691.00
Jul 21, 202691.00
Jul 20, 202691.00
Jul 19, 202690.50
Jul 18, 202690.50
Jul 17, 202690.50

About this index

How Presidential (R) is calculated

Adjacent applies its UPFI methodology to live prediction markets. Weights reflect contract activity and time to resolution for Presidential and Senate races, and jurisdiction population for House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral races.

Structure
Market basket
Coverage
Presidential
Methodology
upfi
Status
Live
Source
Adjacent

Key drivers

Largest weighted input

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

KXPRESPARTY-2028-R · 100.0% weight · 40.5 level

Trailing changes

Trailing returns calculated by Adjacent across standard periods.

1D
+0.0%
1W
+0.0%
1M
-1.1%
3M
-1.1%
YTD
—
1Y
—

Risk statistics

Volatility
3.81%
Daily volatility
0.20%
Range high
91.50
Range low
90.50
Period return
-1.09%

Maturity schedule

Nov 7, 2029

1 market

100.0%