Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 3m ago

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

AllEconomicsHealthPolymathAICryptoPoliticsSportsVenture
Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture

Economics

#PersonBalance
1
Profile pictureByrne Hobart
$10,044.69
2
Profile pictureAlex Kruger
$10,000.00
3
Profile pictureEmily Oster
$10,000.00
4
Profile pictureEric Balchunas
$10,000.00
5
Profile picturePeter Schiff
$9,966.54
6
Profile pictureBryan Caplan
$9,917.98
7
Profile pictureChad Jones
$9,900.00
8
Profile pictureJim Cramer
$9,258.66
9
Profile picturePaul Krugman
$8,478.51

9 people

Health

1Profile pictureBryan Johnson$10,000.002Profile pictureEric Topol$10,000.00

2 people

Polymath

1Profile pictureJoe Rogan$10,805.382Profile pictureVitalik Buterin$10,174.423Profile pictureMark Cuban$10,116.514Profile picturePaul Graham$10,050.385Profile pictureMarc Andreessen$10,048.316Profile pictureTyler Cowen$10,035.047Profile pictureEliezer Yudkowsky$10,030.888Profile pictureTim Ferriss$10,005.469Profile pictureScott Alexander$10,003.2310Profile pictureCremieux$10,000.1511Profile pictureAella$10,000.0012Profile picturePhil Hellmuth$10,000.0013Profile pictureRobin Hanson$9,987.6414Profile pictureBalaji Srinivasan$9,981.7015Profile pictureElon Musk$9,950.5316Profile pictureRoon$9,923.7217Profile pictureJason Calacanis$9,817.2518Profile pictureNikita Bier$9,805.4519Profile pictureEigenrobot$9,800.1920Profile pictureDavid Friedberg$9,730.5121Profile pictureChamath Palihapitiya$9,724.1422Profile pictureZvi Mowshowitz$9,624.5723Profile pictureNate Silver$8,964.7524Profile pictureDavid Sacks$7,998.34

24 people

AI

1Profile pictureYann LeCun$10,011.692Profile pictureAravind Srinivas$10,004.923AI 2040$10,004.584Profile pictureLeopold Aschenbrenner$10,003.455Profile pictureAmanda Askell$10,000.006Profile pictureAndrej Karpathy$10,000.007Profile pictureDemis Hassabis$10,000.008Profile pictureDwarkesh Patel$10,000.009Profile pictureFei-Fei Li$10,000.0010Profile pictureGary Marcus$10,000.0011Profile pictureIlya Sutskever$10,000.0012Profile pictureLilian Weng$10,000.0013Profile pictureMira Murati$10,000.0014Profile pictureAndrew Ng$9,927.6915Profile pictureSam Altman$9,926.3016Profile pictureGreg Brockman$9,845.1017Profile pictureDario Amodei$9,718.90

17 people

Crypto

1Profile pictureAnsem$10,662.792Profile pictureArthur Hayes$10,532.523Profile pictureKyle Samani$10,187.424Profile pictureFlood$10,107.775Profile pictureMert$10,010.026Profile pictureVibhu$10,000.007Profile pictureBased16z$9,987.658Profile pictureAnatoly Yakovenko$9,935.299Profile pictureThreadguy$9,900.00

9 people

Politics

1Profile pictureDerek Thompson$10,599.872Profile pictureGavin Newsom$10,064.463Profile pictureNancy Pelosi$10,057.374Profile pictureMegyn Kelly$10,011.275Profile pictureMatthew Yglesias$10,003.326Profile pictureHarry Enten$10,000.007Profile pictureIan Bremmer$9,999.378Profile pictureEzra Klein$9,982.979Profile pictureBen Shapiro$9,918.2210Profile pictureAOC$9,900.0011Profile pictureTucker Carlson$9,779.30

11 people

Sports

1Profile pictureStephen A. Smith$10,794.572Profile pictureChael Sonnen$10,000.003Profile pictureKendrick Perkins$10,000.004Profile pictureBill Simmons$9,933.945Profile pictureColin Cowherd$9,454.556Profile pictureSkip Bayless$9,183.867Profile pictureNick Wright$8,218.90

7 people

Venture

1Profile pictureMike Solana$10,120.092Profile pictureKeith Rabois$10,018.313Profile pictureDalton Caldwell$10,000.004Profile pictureGarry Tan$10,000.005Profile pictureJustine Moore$10,000.006Profile pictureMichael Seibel$10,000.007Profile pictureMike Maples Jr$10,000.008Profile pictureBill Gurley$9,441.959Profile pictureChris Dixon$9,090.65

9 people

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