Can Nate Silver predict the future?
Nate SilverTracking 64 people across 7 domains
Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.
Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated just now
Tracking 64 people across 7 domains
Economics
| # | Person | Balance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000.00 | |
| 2 | $9,945.46 | |
| 3 | $9,921.31 | |
| 4 | $9,900.00 | |
| 5 | $9,342.19 | |
| 6 | $8,549.03 |
6 people
Polymath
1
Joe Rogan$10,835.162
Marc Andreessen$10,127.383
Vitalik Buterin$10,126.554
Mark Cuban$10,101.285
Paul Graham$10,050.156
Tyler Cowen$10,030.667
Eliezer Yudkowsky$10,022.798
Scott Alexander$10,015.489
Tim Ferriss$10,006.0610
Robin Hanson$10,002.9911
Phil Hellmuth$10,000.0012
Roon$9,909.9713
Balaji Srinivasan$9,898.5314
Jason Calacanis$9,871.0115
David Friedberg$9,817.7916
Eigenrobot$9,794.1117
Nikita Bier$9,772.7318
Zvi Mowshowitz$9,618.5719
Chamath Palihapitiya$9,609.0920
David Sacks$9,305.3521
Nate Silver$8,998.62
Joe Rogan$10,835.162Marc Andreessen$10,127.383Vitalik Buterin$10,126.554Mark Cuban$10,101.285Paul Graham$10,050.156Tyler Cowen$10,030.667Eliezer Yudkowsky$10,022.798Scott Alexander$10,015.489Tim Ferriss$10,006.0610Robin Hanson$10,002.9911Phil Hellmuth$10,000.0012Roon$9,909.9713Balaji Srinivasan$9,898.5314Jason Calacanis$9,871.0115David Friedberg$9,817.7916Eigenrobot$9,794.1117Nikita Bier$9,772.7318Zvi Mowshowitz$9,618.5719Chamath Palihapitiya$9,609.0920David Sacks$9,305.3521Nate Silver$8,998.6221 people
AI
1
Leopold Aschenbrenner$10,000.002
Mira Murati$10,000.003
Andrew Ng$9,935.644
Greg Brockman$9,900.005
Sam Altman$9,827.686
Dario Amodei$9,642.47
Leopold Aschenbrenner$10,000.002Mira Murati$10,000.003Andrew Ng$9,935.644Greg Brockman$9,900.005Sam Altman$9,827.686Dario Amodei$9,642.476 people
Crypto
1
Kyle Samani$10,350.472
Ansem$10,009.753
Based16z$10,000.204
Vibhu$10,000.005
Mert$9,952.246
Anatoly Yakovenko$9,944.127
Threadguy$9,900.128
Flood$9,784.019
Arthur Hayes$9,059.63
Kyle Samani$10,350.472Ansem$10,009.753Based16z$10,000.204Vibhu$10,000.005Mert$9,952.246Anatoly Yakovenko$9,944.127Threadguy$9,900.128Flood$9,784.019Arthur Hayes$9,059.639 people
Politics
1
Derek Thompson$10,638.502
Nancy Pelosi$10,045.413
Gavin Newsom$10,034.374
Megyn Kelly$9,968.275
Ezra Klein$9,934.306
AOC$9,900.007
Ben Shapiro$9,891.538
Tucker Carlson$9,791.54
Derek Thompson$10,638.502Nancy Pelosi$10,045.413Gavin Newsom$10,034.374Megyn Kelly$9,968.275Ezra Klein$9,934.306AOC$9,900.007Ben Shapiro$9,891.538Tucker Carlson$9,791.548 people
Sports
1
Bill Simmons$12,166.182
Stephen A. Smith$11,142.663
Colin Cowherd$9,706.244
Skip Bayless$9,291.415
Nick Wright$8,423.25
Bill Simmons$12,166.182Stephen A. Smith$11,142.663Colin Cowherd$9,706.244Skip Bayless$9,291.415Nick Wright$8,423.255 people
Venture
1
Mike Solana$10,244.212
Keith Rabois$10,023.123
Dalton Caldwell$10,000.004
Garry Tan$10,000.005
Justine Moore$10,000.006
Michael Seibel$10,000.007
Mike Maples Jr$10,000.008
Bill Gurley$9,586.469
Chris Dixon$9,551.67
Mike Solana$10,244.212Keith Rabois$10,023.123Dalton Caldwell$10,000.004Garry Tan$10,000.005Justine Moore$10,000.006Michael Seibel$10,000.007Mike Maples Jr$10,000.008Bill Gurley$9,586.469Chris Dixon$9,551.679 people