Can Nate Silver predict the future?
Nate SilverTracking 74 people across 8 domains
Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.
Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 4m ago
Tracking 74 people across 8 domains
Economics
| # | Person | Balance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,034.96 | |
| 2 | $10,000.00 | |
| 3 | $10,000.00 | |
| 4 | $10,000.00 | |
| 5 | $9,915.95 | |
| 6 | $9,900.00 | |
| 7 | $9,857.47 | |
| 8 | $9,248.93 | |
| 9 | $8,498.51 |
9 people
Polymath
1
Joe Rogan$10,807.202
Marc Andreessen$10,355.953
Vitalik Buterin$10,167.284
Mark Cuban$10,142.895
Paul Graham$10,050.156
Tyler Cowen$10,035.047
Eliezer Yudkowsky$10,017.658
Scott Alexander$10,016.779
Tim Ferriss$10,006.0610
Elon Musk$10,000.0011
Phil Hellmuth$10,000.0012
Robin Hanson$9,987.7713
Roon$9,896.6914
Balaji Srinivasan$9,882.2615
Jason Calacanis$9,861.2816
David Friedberg$9,822.6917
Eigenrobot$9,776.9018
Nikita Bier$9,772.7319
Zvi Mowshowitz$9,618.5720
Chamath Palihapitiya$9,359.2221
Nate Silver$8,937.1822
David Sacks$8,616.86
Joe Rogan$10,807.202Marc Andreessen$10,355.953Vitalik Buterin$10,167.284Mark Cuban$10,142.895Paul Graham$10,050.156Tyler Cowen$10,035.047Eliezer Yudkowsky$10,017.658Scott Alexander$10,016.779Tim Ferriss$10,006.0610Elon Musk$10,000.0011Phil Hellmuth$10,000.0012Robin Hanson$9,987.7713Roon$9,896.6914Balaji Srinivasan$9,882.2615Jason Calacanis$9,861.2816David Friedberg$9,822.6917Eigenrobot$9,776.9018Nikita Bier$9,772.7319Zvi Mowshowitz$9,618.5720Chamath Palihapitiya$9,359.2221Nate Silver$8,937.1822David Sacks$8,616.8622 people
AI
1
Gary Marcus$10,000.002
Leopold Aschenbrenner$10,000.003
Mira Murati$10,000.004
Andrew Ng$9,935.645
Greg Brockman$9,853.466
Dario Amodei$9,774.887
Sam Altman$9,743.85
Gary Marcus$10,000.002Leopold Aschenbrenner$10,000.003Mira Murati$10,000.004Andrew Ng$9,935.645Greg Brockman$9,853.466Dario Amodei$9,774.887Sam Altman$9,743.857 people
Crypto
1
Kyle Samani$10,247.362
Vibhu$10,000.003
Mert$9,931.664
Anatoly Yakovenko$9,925.295
Ansem$9,922.776
Based16z$9,904.557
Threadguy$9,900.128
Flood$9,598.229
Arthur Hayes$8,493.97
Kyle Samani$10,247.362Vibhu$10,000.003Mert$9,931.664Anatoly Yakovenko$9,925.295Ansem$9,922.776Based16z$9,904.557Threadguy$9,900.128Flood$9,598.229Arthur Hayes$8,493.979 people
Politics
1
Derek Thompson$10,643.272
Nancy Pelosi$10,063.113
Gavin Newsom$10,038.264
Harry Enten$10,000.005
Matthew Yglesias$9,997.006
Megyn Kelly$9,993.307
Ezra Klein$9,912.658
AOC$9,900.009
Ben Shapiro$9,894.3010
Tucker Carlson$9,778.60
Derek Thompson$10,643.272Nancy Pelosi$10,063.113Gavin Newsom$10,038.264Harry Enten$10,000.005Matthew Yglesias$9,997.006Megyn Kelly$9,993.307Ezra Klein$9,912.658AOC$9,900.009Ben Shapiro$9,894.3010Tucker Carlson$9,778.6010 people
Sports
1
Stephen A. Smith$10,794.142
Chael Sonnen$10,000.003
Kendrick Perkins$10,000.004
Bill Simmons$9,941.245
Colin Cowherd$9,775.716
Skip Bayless$9,088.077
Nick Wright$8,185.31
Stephen A. Smith$10,794.142Chael Sonnen$10,000.003Kendrick Perkins$10,000.004Bill Simmons$9,941.245Colin Cowherd$9,775.716Skip Bayless$9,088.077Nick Wright$8,185.317 people
Venture
1
Mike Solana$10,170.562
Dalton Caldwell$10,000.003
Garry Tan$10,000.004
Justine Moore$10,000.005
Michael Seibel$10,000.006
Mike Maples Jr$10,000.007
Keith Rabois$9,992.878
Bill Gurley$9,469.459
Chris Dixon$9,110.69
Mike Solana$10,170.562Dalton Caldwell$10,000.003Garry Tan$10,000.004Justine Moore$10,000.005Michael Seibel$10,000.006Mike Maples Jr$10,000.007Keith Rabois$9,992.878Bill Gurley$9,469.459Chris Dixon$9,110.699 people