Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 3m ago

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

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Leaderboard

#	Person	Trades
1	1 Yann LeCun Trades Balance PnL	3	$10,007.79 Positions: $307.79Cash: $9,700.00	+$7.79
2	2 AI 2040 Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,004.58 Positions: $104.58Cash: $9,900.00	+$4.58
3	3 Aravind Srinivas Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,004.10 Positions: $104.10Cash: $9,900.00	+$4.10
4	4 Leopold Aschenbrenner Trades Balance PnL	2	$10,003.45 Positions: $203.45Cash: $9,800.00	+$3.45
5	5 Amanda Askell Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
6	6 Andrej Karpathy Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
7	7 Demis Hassabis Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
8	8 Dwarkesh Patel Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
9	9 Fei-Fei Li Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
10	10 Gary Marcus Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
11	11 Ilya Sutskever Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
12	12 Lilian Weng Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
13	13 Mira Murati Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
14	14 Sam Altman Trades Balance PnL	10	$9,936.01 Positions: $822.68Cash: $9,113.32	-$63.99
15	15 Andrew Ng Trades Balance PnL	2	$9,927.69 Positions: $127.69Cash: $9,800.00	-$72.31
16	16 Greg Brockman Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,845.04 Positions: $145.04Cash: $9,700.00	-$154.96
17	17 Dario Amodei Trades Balance PnL	5	$9,718.90 Positions: $218.90Cash: $9,500.00	-$281.10