Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 1m ago

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

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Leaderboard

#	Person	Trades
1	1 Leopold Aschenbrenner Trades Balance PnL	2	$10,077.64 Positions: $277.64Cash: $9,800.00	+$77.64
2	2 AI 2040 Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,015.03 Positions: $115.03Cash: $9,900.00	+$15.03
3	3 Aravind Srinivas Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,004.10 Positions: $104.10Cash: $9,900.00	+$4.10
4	4 Sam Altman Trades Balance PnL	11	$9,989.63 Positions: $838.31Cash: $9,151.31	-$10.37
5	5 Yann LeCun Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,982.47 Positions: $282.47Cash: $9,700.00	-$17.53
6	6 Andrew Ng Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,890.72 Positions: $190.72Cash: $9,700.00	-$109.28
7	7 Greg Brockman Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,878.10 Positions: $140.22Cash: $9,737.89	-$121.90
8	8 Dario Amodei Trades Balance PnL	5	$9,707.97 Positions: $207.97Cash: $9,500.00	-$292.03