Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 74 people across 8 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated just now

Tracking 74 people across 8 domains

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Politics

Leaderboard

#	Person	Trades
1	1 Derek Thompson Trades Balance PnL	8	$10,638.44 Positions: $1,438.44Cash: $9,200.00	+$638.44
2	2 Nancy Pelosi Trades Balance PnL	4	$10,058.64 Positions: $458.64Cash: $9,600.00	+$58.64
3	3 Gavin Newsom Trades Balance PnL	3	$10,039.53 Positions: $339.53Cash: $9,700.00	+$39.53
4	4 Megyn Kelly Trades Balance PnL	9	$10,001.77 Positions: $901.77Cash: $9,100.00	+$1.77
5	5 Harry Enten Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
6	6 Matthew Yglesias Trades Balance PnL	1	$9,997.00 Positions: $97.00Cash: $9,900.00	-$3.00
7	7 Ezra Klein Trades Balance PnL	2	$9,926.49 Positions: $126.49Cash: $9,800.00	-$73.51
8	8 AOC Trades Balance PnL	1	$9,900.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $9,900.00	-$100.00
9	9 Ben Shapiro Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,895.44 Positions: $195.44Cash: $9,700.00	-$104.56
10	10 Tucker Carlson Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,777.16 Positions: $177.16Cash: $9,600.00	-$222.84