Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 4m ago

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

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Politics

Leaderboard

#	Person	Trades
1	1 Derek Thompson Trades Balance PnL	8	$10,599.87 Positions: $598.74Cash: $10,001.13	+$599.87
2	2 Gavin Newsom Trades Balance PnL	5	$10,064.46 Positions: $564.46Cash: $9,500.00	+$64.46
3	3 Nancy Pelosi Trades Balance PnL	4	$10,057.37 Positions: $239.98Cash: $9,817.39	+$57.37
4	4 Megyn Kelly Trades Balance PnL	11	$10,011.27 Positions: $1,111.27Cash: $8,900.00	+$11.27
5	5 Matthew Yglesias Trades Balance PnL	3	$10,003.32 Positions: $303.32Cash: $9,700.00	+$3.32
6	6 Harry Enten Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
7	7 Ian Bremmer Trades Balance PnL	2	$9,999.37 Positions: $199.37Cash: $9,800.00	-$0.63
8	8 Ezra Klein Trades Balance PnL	2	$9,982.97 Positions: $182.97Cash: $9,800.00	-$17.03
9	9 Ben Shapiro Trades Balance PnL	5	$9,918.22 Positions: $418.22Cash: $9,500.00	-$81.78
10	10 AOC Trades Balance PnL	1	$9,900.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $9,900.00	-$100.00
11	11 Tucker Carlson Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,779.30 Positions: $179.30Cash: $9,600.00	-$220.70