Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 1m ago

Tracking 88 people across 8 domains

All Economics Health Polymath AI Crypto Politics Sports Venture

Polymath

Leaderboard

#	Person	Trades
1	1 Joe Rogan Trades Balance PnL	4	$10,800.99 Positions: $188.41Cash: $10,612.58	+$800.99
2	2 Vitalik Buterin Trades Balance PnL	6	$10,174.42 Positions: $621.75Cash: $9,552.67	+$174.42
3	3 Mark Cuban Trades Balance PnL	10	$10,117.30 Positions: $952.01Cash: $9,165.29	+$117.30
4	4 Paul Graham Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,050.38 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,050.38	+$50.38
5	5 Marc Andreessen Trades Balance PnL	2	$10,048.31 Positions: $248.31Cash: $9,800.00	+$48.31
6	6 Tyler Cowen Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,035.04 Positions: $135.04Cash: $9,900.00	+$35.04
7	7 Eliezer Yudkowsky Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,030.88 Positions: $130.88Cash: $9,900.00	+$30.88
8	8 Scott Alexander Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,003.87 Positions: $103.87Cash: $9,900.00	+$3.87
9	9 Cremieux Trades Balance PnL	1	$10,000.15 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.15	+$0.15
10	10 Aella Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
11	11 Phil Hellmuth Trades Balance PnL	0	$10,000.00 Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,000.00	+$0.00
12	12 Tim Ferriss Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,993.70 Positions: $293.70Cash: $9,700.00	-$6.30
13	13 Robin Hanson Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,990.58 Positions: $146.69Cash: $9,843.88	-$9.42
14	14 Balaji Srinivasan Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,953.34 Positions: $253.34Cash: $9,700.00	-$46.66
15	15 Elon Musk Trades Balance PnL	1	$9,952.63 Positions: $52.63Cash: $9,900.00	-$47.37
16	16 Roon Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,923.96 Positions: $323.96Cash: $9,600.00	-$76.04
17	17 Jason Calacanis Trades Balance PnL	6	$9,832.31 Positions: $432.31Cash: $9,400.00	-$167.69
18	18 Nikita Bier Trades Balance PnL	3	$9,805.45 Positions: $105.45Cash: $9,700.00	-$194.55
19	19 Eigenrobot Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,800.19 Positions: $94.09Cash: $9,706.10	-$199.81
20	20 David Friedberg Trades Balance PnL	4	$9,731.53 Positions: $131.53Cash: $9,600.00	-$268.47
21	21 Chamath Palihapitiya Trades Balance PnL	13	$9,705.60 Positions: $1,005.60Cash: $8,700.00	-$294.40
22	22 Zvi Mowshowitz Trades Balance PnL	8	$9,625.06 Positions: $324.05Cash: $9,301.01	-$374.94
23	23 Nate Silver Trades Balance PnL	46	$8,950.37 Positions: $2,997.35Cash: $5,953.02	-$1,049.63
24	24 David Sacks Trades Balance PnL	41	$7,979.82 Positions: $1,520.56Cash: $6,459.26	-$2,020.18