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Can Nate Silver predict the future?

Tracking 97 people across 9 domains

Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions, measuring accuracy across domains.

Tracking since Jan 1st, 2026 · updated 1m ago

Tracking 97 people across 9 domains

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Claim Markets
Profile pictureProfile pictureProfile picture

Polymath

Leaderboard

#PersonTrades
1
1
Profile pictureJoe Rogan
Trades
Balance
PnL
6$10,921.64
Positions: $509.06Cash: $10,412.58
+$921.64
2
2
Profile pictureVitalik Buterin
Trades
Balance
PnL
6$10,143.81
Positions: $483.03Cash: $9,660.78
+$143.81
3
3
Profile pictureMark Cuban
Trades
Balance
PnL
11$10,096.17
Positions: $1,030.88Cash: $9,065.29
+$96.17
4
4
Profile picturePaul Graham
Trades
Balance
PnL
1$10,050.38
Positions: $0.00Cash: $10,050.38
+$50.38
5
5
Profile pictureEliezer Yudkowsky
Trades
Balance
PnL
1$10,039.71
Positions: $139.71Cash: $9,900.00
+$39.71
6
6
Profile pictureTyler Cowen
Trades
Balance
PnL
1$10,035.04
Positions: $135.04Cash: $9,900.00
+$35.04
7
7
Profile pictureScott Alexander
Trades
Balance
PnL
1$10,011.61
Positions: $111.61Cash: $9,900.00
+$11.61
8
8
Profile pictureCremieux
Trades
Balance
PnL
4$10,005.26
Positions: $305.11Cash: $9,700.15
+$5.26
9
9
Profile pictureRobin Hanson
Trades
Balance
PnL
5$9,991.24
Positions: $347.36Cash: $9,643.88
-$8.76
10
10
Profile pictureMarc Andreessen
Trades
Balance
PnL
2$9,989.85
Positions: $189.85Cash: $9,800.00
-$10.15
11
11
Profile pictureTim Ferriss
Trades
Balance
PnL
3$9,972.33
Positions: $272.33Cash: $9,700.00
-$27.67
12
12
Profile pictureRoon
Trades
Balance
PnL
4$9,932.25
Positions: $332.25Cash: $9,600.00
-$67.75
13
13
Profile pictureElon Musk
Trades
Balance
PnL
1$9,900.00
Positions: $0.00Cash: $9,900.00
-$100.00
14
14
Profile pictureBalaji Srinivasan
Trades
Balance
PnL
4$9,849.78
Positions: $249.78Cash: $9,600.00
-$150.22
15
15
Profile pictureEigenrobot
Trades
Balance
PnL
4$9,802.34
Positions: $96.24Cash: $9,706.10
-$197.66
16
16
Profile pictureNikita Bier
Trades
Balance
PnL
3$9,758.18
Positions: $58.18Cash: $9,700.00
-$241.82
17
17
Profile pictureZvi Mowshowitz
Trades
Balance
PnL
10$9,626.16
Positions: $341.67Cash: $9,284.50
-$373.84
18
18
Profile pictureNate Silver
Trades
Balance
PnL
67$9,001.58
Positions: $5,148.56Cash: $3,853.02
-$998.42
19
19
Profile pictureDavid Sacks
Trades
Balance
PnL
42$7,697.84
Positions: $1,338.57Cash: $6,359.26
-$2,302.16