US Politics · REDBTL
RED Battleground Index
A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican political advantage across U.S. battleground states.
82.71
+0.0 today
50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%
1D change
+0.0 pts
7D change
—
Sub-indices
4
Implied probability
32.7%
RED Battleground Index is at 82.7 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 32.7% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.
Daily closes plus the current level.
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Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 82.62–82.96
Constituents
No constituent data is currently available.
Probability distribution
Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.
95 markets
0–10%
25 · 26.3%
10–20%
9 · 9.5%
20–30%
7 · 7.4%
30–40%
8 · 8.4%
40–50%
6 · 6.3%
50–60%
0 · 0.0%
60–70%
4 · 4.2%
70–80%
1 · 1.1%
80–90%
11 · 11.6%
90–100%
24 · 25.3%
Recent observations
Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.
| Settlement | Value |
|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | 82.62 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 82.64 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 82.96 |