US Politics · REDBTL

RED Battleground Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Republican political advantage across U.S. battleground states.

85.76

+0.7 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.7 pts

7D change

+0.2 pts

Sub-indices

4

Implied probability

35.8%

RED Battleground Index is at 85.8 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 35.8% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

86.085.184.283.2Aug 11Aug 25Sep 10

Focus the chart and use the left and right arrow keys, Home, or End to inspect observations.

Updated Sep 10, 2026, 1:29 AM UTCRange 83.47–85.77

Constituents

No constituent data is currently available.

Probability distribution

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

95 markets

0–10%
32 · 33.7%
10–20%
5 · 5.3%
20–30%
5 · 5.3%
30–40%
8 · 8.4%
40–50%
4 · 4.2%
50–60%
2 · 2.1%
60–70%
2 · 2.1%
70–80%
3 · 3.2%
80–90%
5 · 5.3%
90–100%
29 · 30.5%

Recent observations

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.

SettlementValue
Sep 8, 202685.03
Sep 7, 202685.07
Sep 6, 202685.10
Sep 5, 202685.38
Sep 4, 202685.29
Sep 3, 202685.48
Sep 2, 202685.51
Sep 1, 202685.09
Aug 31, 202684.66
Aug 30, 202684.47
Show 38 older daily observations
SettlementValue
Aug 29, 202684.71
Aug 28, 202685.12
Aug 27, 202685.03
Aug 26, 202684.47
Aug 25, 202684.13
Aug 24, 202685.35
Aug 23, 202684.86
Aug 22, 202683.78
Aug 21, 202684.73
Aug 20, 202684.65
Aug 19, 202684.64
Aug 18, 202685.77
Aug 17, 202685.08
Aug 16, 202685.62
Aug 15, 202685.70
Aug 14, 202685.61
Aug 13, 202683.98
Aug 12, 202683.47
Aug 11, 202684.40
Aug 10, 202684.93
Aug 9, 202684.76
Aug 8, 202684.68
Aug 7, 202684.32
Aug 6, 202684.46
Aug 5, 202684.85
Aug 4, 202684.21
Aug 3, 202683.89
Aug 2, 202683.65
Aug 1, 202683.31
Jul 31, 202683.45
Jul 30, 202683.32
Jul 29, 202683.37
Jul 28, 202683.34
Jul 27, 202683.37
Jul 26, 202682.79
Jul 25, 202682.57
Jul 24, 202682.59
Jul 23, 202682.53