US Politics · SENBGD

BLUE Battleground Senate Index

A real-time, market-implied measure of Democratic advantage in U.S. Senate races across battleground states.

127.92

+0.1 today

50 = 0% · 100 = neutral · 150 = 100%

1D change

+0.1 pts

7D change

—

Markets

Implied probability

77.9%

BLUE Battleground Senate Index is at 127.9 on Adjacent's 50–150 UPFI scale, implying 77.9% aggregate win probability for the tracked party.

Index history

Daily closes plus the current level.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCRange 127.66–127.92

Constituents

Current prediction markets, weights, geography, and scheduled expirations.

Ticker	Market	Level	Weight	30D
SENATENC-26-D kalshi · NC	Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina? Expires Nov 3, 2027	90.00	25.2%	—
SENATEGA-26-D kalshi · GA	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia? Expires Nov 3, 2027	90.00	16.0%	—
SENATEMI-26-D kalshi · MI	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan? Expires Nov 3, 2027	70.00	14.2%	—
SENATEPA-28-D kalshi · PA	Will Democrats win the Senate race in Pennsylvania? Expires Nov 7, 2029	72.00	10.0%	—
SENATENC-28-D kalshi · NC	Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina? Expires Nov 7, 2029	69.50	8.7%	—
SENATEGA-28-D kalshi · GA	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia? Expires Nov 7, 2029	69.00	8.7%	—
SENATEAZ-28-D kalshi · AZ	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arizona? Expires Nov 7, 2029	77.00	6.6%	—
SENATEWI-28-D kalshi · WI	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Wisconsin? Expires Nov 7, 2029	63.50	6.2%	—
SENATENV-28-D kalshi · NV	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Nevada? Expires Nov 7, 2029	57.00	4.4%	—

Underlying markets grouped by their current Yes probability.

9 markets

0–10%

0 · 0.0%

10–20%

0 · 0.0%

20–30%

0 · 0.0%

30–40%

0 · 0.0%

40–50%

0 · 0.0%

50–60%

1 · 11.1%

60–70%

3 · 33.3%

70–80%

3 · 33.3%

80–90%

0 · 0.0%

90–100%

2 · 22.2%

Daily Adjacent index levels, newest first.