Geopolitics · WARI · Illustrative

Western Alliance Reliability Index

Tracks markets about NATO cohesion, collective defense, security commitments, and allied burden sharing.

Illustrative index level

72.4

+1.2 sample change

0 = weaker alliance reliability · 100 = stronger alliance reliability

Change (30D)

+1.2 pts

Constituents

4

High (30D)

72.40

Low (30D)

71.20

Sample history
Sample snapshot · July 20, 2026

Constituents

Example weighted inputs from external prediction markets.

  • NATO

    NATO cohesion

    Up
    Level
    77.20
    Weight
    30.0%
    30D
    +1.2 pts

  • DEFCOM

    Defense commitments

    Up
    Level
    70.00
    Weight
    25.0%
    30D
    +0.8 pts

  • BURDEN

    Burden sharing

    Down
    Level
    74.00
    Weight
    25.0%
    30D
    -0.5 pts

  • SANCC

    Sanctions coordination

    Up
    Level
    69.20
    Weight
    20.0%
    30D
    +0.6 pts

Sample settlements

Recent illustrative observations, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 20, 202672.40
Jul 14, 202672.10
Jul 8, 202671.90
Jul 2, 202671.70
Jun 26, 202671.50
Jun 20, 202671.20