Geopolitics · TCIX · Illustrative

Taiwan Crisis Index

Aggregates prediction markets about military, diplomatic, and economic escalation around Taiwan.

Illustrative index level

38.6

+3.4 sample change

0 = lower crisis risk · 100 = higher crisis risk

Change (30D)

+3.4 pts

Constituents

4

High (30D)

38.60

Low (30D)

35.20

Sample history
Sample snapshot · July 20, 2026

Constituents

Example weighted inputs from external prediction markets.

  • MILACT

    Military activity

    Up
    Level
    43.40
    Weight
    30.0%
    30D
    +3.4 pts

  • DIPREL

    Diplomatic relations

    Up
    Level
    36.20
    Weight
    25.0%
    30D
    +2.4 pts

  • SANCR

    Sanctions risk

    Down
    Level
    40.20
    Weight
    25.0%
    30D
    -1.4 pts

  • SHIP

    Shipping disruption

    Up
    Level
    35.40
    Weight
    20.0%
    30D
    +1.7 pts

Sample settlements

Recent illustrative observations, newest first.

SettlementValue
Jul 20, 202638.60
Jul 14, 202637.30
Jul 8, 202636.20
Jul 2, 202635.40
Jun 26, 202635.60
Jun 20, 202635.20