- YES
- This market resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate (U-3) for November 2026, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment Situation report (scheduled for December 4, 2026), is above 4.1%. Otherwise it resolves NO. The rate is the one-decimal figure BLS publishes; a published rate of exactly 4.1% resolves NO. The first publication controls; later revisions, including annual benchmark or seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not count. If the release is delayed, the market resolves on the November 2026 rate whenever BLS first publishes it, and if BLS has not published a November 2026 rate by January 31, 2027 11:59 p.m. ET, the market resolves void and stakes are returned. The primary resolution source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report (bls.gov). If that source is unavailable, ambiguous, or silent, this market resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting: at least two independent, reputable news organizations or official sources (for example Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, or the relevant court, agency or company) reporting that the condition was or was not met within the stated window. Opinion pieces, social media posts, and reports relying on a single anonymous source do not count.
- NO
- The YES condition is not met by the event deadline.
- Offer expires
- Dec 3, 8:00 PM PT
- Ends
- Dec 4, 2026