Will the US unemployment rate for November 2027 be above 4.5%?

Original post

@tolyx.com/toly/status/21168775107220603…

YES

This market resolves YES if the US unemployment rate for November 2027, as first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its Employment Situation release, is above 4.5%. Otherwise it resolves NO. The "unemployment rate" is the official seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate (U-3, BLS series LNS14000000), as rounded to one decimal place by BLS. A rate of exactly 4.5% resolves NO. The first published figure controls; later revisions, including annual seasonal adjustment revisions, do not change the result. The cause of the rate does not matter. A change in survey methods counts if BLS still publishes the result as its official headline unemployment rate. If another federal agency takes over the series, its official figure counts. If BLS has not published the November 2027 rate by December 31, 2027 11:59 p.m. ET, for example because of a government shutdown, the market resolves on the most recent monthly rate BLS has published by then. Settled using the data at https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm. The primary resolution source is bls.gov (the Employment Situation release and series LNS14000000). If that source is unavailable, ambiguous, or silent, this market resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting: at least two independent, reputable news organizations or official sources (for example Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, or the relevant court, agency or company) reporting that the condition was or was not met within the stated window. Opinion pieces, social media posts, and reports relying on a single anonymous source do not count.

NO

The YES condition is not met by the event deadline.

Offer expires

Dec 11, 1:24 AM PT

Ends

Dec 31, 2027

Result source

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

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