Will U.S. real GDP per capita grow at least 15% in a single year by December 31, 2033?

Source:@ben_mollMoll’s bet termsCreated by

@ryanchern

YES

Original post: @ben_mollx.com/ben_moll/status/2114288702566…
YES: This market resolves YES if, for any calendar quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2033, U.S. real gross domestic product per capita is at least 15% higher than the highest value recorded for any quarter ending one year or more before it. For example, the third quarter of 2030 qualifies if its value is at least 1.15 times the highest value for any quarter up to and including the third quarter of 2029. A recovery that only regains a previous high does not count. "Real GDP per capita" means the Bureau of Economic Analysis series "Real gross domestic product per capita" (NIPA Table 7.1, quarterly, chained dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate; FRED series A939RX0Q048SBEA). Values are compared using the BEA's latest published estimates as of April 30, 2034, including revisions and any change of reference year. A value exactly 15% higher counts. The primary resolution source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. If that source is unavailable, ambiguous, or silent, this market resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting: at least two independent, reputable news organizations or official sources (for example Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, or the relevant court, agency or company) reporting that the condition was or was not met within the stated window. Opinion pieces, social media posts, and reports relying on a single anonymous source do not count.
NO: This market resolves NO if no quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2033 meets the condition above, based on the BEA's estimates as of April 30, 2034.
Offer expires: Nov 28, 9:47 PM PT
Ends: Apr 30, 2034
Result source: https://www.bea.gov/

Will U.S. real GDP per capita grow at least 15% in a single year by December 31, 2033?

Source:@ben_mollMoll’s bet termsCreated by

@ryanchern

YES

Original post: @ben_mollx.com/ben_moll/status/2114288702566…
YES: This market resolves YES if, for any calendar quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2033, U.S. real gross domestic product per capita is at least 15% higher than the highest value recorded for any quarter ending one year or more before it. For example, the third quarter of 2030 qualifies if its value is at least 1.15 times the highest value for any quarter up to and including the third quarter of 2029. A recovery that only regains a previous high does not count. "Real GDP per capita" means the Bureau of Economic Analysis series "Real gross domestic product per capita" (NIPA Table 7.1, quarterly, chained dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate; FRED series A939RX0Q048SBEA). Values are compared using the BEA's latest published estimates as of April 30, 2034, including revisions and any change of reference year. A value exactly 15% higher counts. The primary resolution source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. If that source is unavailable, ambiguous, or silent, this market resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting: at least two independent, reputable news organizations or official sources (for example Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, or the relevant court, agency or company) reporting that the condition was or was not met within the stated window. Opinion pieces, social media posts, and reports relying on a single anonymous source do not count.
NO: This market resolves NO if no quarter from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2033 meets the condition above, based on the BEA's estimates as of April 30, 2034.
Offer expires: Nov 28, 9:47 PM PT
Ends: Apr 30, 2034
Result source: https://www.bea.gov/