Will a quantum computer break a real Bitcoin public key under the listed market's verification standard by December 31, 2026?

Source:

@ryanchernOffer expires in 22 days

YESAnyone$0.25 to take

$0.25 left to take

NO$24.75 at 99%

Reference market: Polymarketpolymarket.com/event/quantum-breaks…
YES: Target: @ilblackdragon (Illia Polosukhin). Fair: 2% YES (Polymarket, read Nov 6). Use Polymarket's December-31-2026 child contract: successful quantum attack on a real, unweakened Bitcoin public key not controlled by the demonstrator, meeting the contract's quantum-advantage, valid-transaction or independent-reproduction and community-acceptance requirements. Small-key demos and ordinary key theft do not count.
NO: The YES condition is not met by the event deadline.
Offer expires: Dec 7, 5:01 PM PT
Ends: Dec 31, 2026
Result source: Vistadex decides, using Polymarket’s rules for this market.

Source:

@ryanchernOffer expires in 22 days

YESAnyone$0.25 to take

$0.25 left to take

NO$24.75 at 99%

Reference market: Polymarketpolymarket.com/event/quantum-breaks…
YES: Target: @ilblackdragon (Illia Polosukhin). Fair: 2% YES (Polymarket, read Nov 6). Use Polymarket's December-31-2026 child contract: successful quantum attack on a real, unweakened Bitcoin public key not controlled by the demonstrator, meeting the contract's quantum-advantage, valid-transaction or independent-reproduction and community-acceptance requirements. Small-key demos and ordinary key theft do not count.
NO: The YES condition is not met by the event deadline.
Offer expires: Dec 7, 5:01 PM PT
Ends: Dec 31, 2026
Result source: Vistadex decides, using Polymarket’s rules for this market.